WELFARE EFFECTS OF TRANSPORTATION DEMAND MANAGEMENT:A CASE STUDY OF "BANNING MOTORCYCLES AND RESTRICTING ELECTRIC BIKES"
In terms of individual citizens,there is a lack of quantitative assessment on the implementation effect of the policy of"banning motorcycles and restricting electric bikes".In this study,the impacts of the policy on commuter welfare(mode shift and cost change)are simulated by integrating transportation mode characteristics and land use characteristics into a discrete choice model.The finding reveals that(1)more than 35％of the motorcycle and electric bike users shift to car driving after the policy is enforced;(2)the disadvantaged group loses more benefits than other groups.The average time for one-way commuting increases by more than 6.9 minutes and the average cost increases by 0.47 yuan;(3)citizens in suburb areas experience a 20％increase in one-way commute time and 0.20 yuan more in economic costs than citizens living in other areas.The number of transfers and the length of waiting time of citizens around urban centers increase significantly.In the context of implementing the public transport priority development strategy and advocating green travel in China,this study has an important reference value for optimizing the implementation of related policies.
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