An Analysis of the Linkage Mechanism between China's Financial and Economic Cycles under the Impact of Monetary Policy
Based on the data from 1998Q1 to 2022Q4,this paper compares and analyzes the linkage mechanism between China's financial and economic cycles under different monetary policy shocks.The main conclusions include:(1)China's fi-nancial and economic cycles generally exhibit reverse fluctuations and cross-lead fluctuations in different frequency domains,but the financial cycle leads the economic cycle in the frequency domain of their main cycle;(2)Compared to quantitative monetary policy,price-based monetary policy shocks better fit the linkage characteristics of China's financial and eco-nomic cycles;(3)In the process of economic cycle fluctuations caused by monetary policy shocks,the partial mediating ef-fect of the financial cycle is an important component of the linkage mechanism between the two,which plays a role as a financial accelerator and a financial decelerator under quantitative and price-based monetary policy shocks,respectively.
万方数据
维普
