资本市场向好预期能缓解总需求不足吗?
Can Positive Expectations in the Capital Market Alleviate the Shortage of Aggregate Demand?
许文立 1区铭彦 2郭柃沂3
作者信息
- 1. 澳门城市大学金融学院
- 2. 中国人民大学经济学院 北京,100872
- 3. 深圳市自然资源和不动产评估发展研究中心
- 折叠
摘要
本文通过构建具有企业进入和退出股票市场特征的宏观金融模型,研究股票市场预期冲击对中国宏观经济的影响,并定量分析冲击的内生不确定性传播渠道及其对中国"双支柱"调控框架的作用.研究发现,投资者的股价上涨预期冲击能够帮助缓解总需求不足的问题,同时,盯住股价的"双支柱"宏观审慎调控框架能够平抑股价预期冲击带来的总需求波动.
Abstract
This paper constructs a macro-financial model that incorporates the characteristics of enterprises entering and exiting the stock market,to study the impact of stock market expectation shocks on China's macroeconomy.It also quanti-tatively analyzes the endogenous uncertainty transmission channels of these shocks and their role in China's"dual-pillar"regulatory framework.The research has found that the investor expectation shock of rising stock prices can help alleviate the shortage of aggregate demand.At the same time,the"dual-pillar"macroprudential regulatory framework that focuses on stock prices can stabilize the volatility of aggregate demand caused by stock price expectation shocks.
关键词
股票市场/股价预期冲击/内生不确定性/宏观审慎政策Key words
stock market/stock price expectation shock/endogenous uncertainty/macro-prudential policy引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据