Activity-Based Travel Demand Modeling for Megacities:Exploration and Practice in Shanghai
Activity-based travel demand models start from the fundamental activity demand of individuals,effectively reflect the relationship between activities and travel,and then establish the correlation between urban or transportation planning scheme and residents'lives.Based on reviewing the development from four-step travel demand models to activity-based models internationally,this paper summarizes the model characteristics,development procedures and practical experiences of activity-based modeling software in North America.A framework structure of activity-based models applicable to Shanghai is designed based on the model application requirements,data conditions,computational and development efficiency of megacities.The activity-based model includes modules such as a population synthesis model for recon-structing individual population data,a medium-and long-term model for mandatory activities,and a short-term model incorporating trip chains and intermediate stops.The paper focuses on the general situation of model parameter calibration,as well as the multi-dimensional calibration and validation of the model re-sults using multi-source data such as household travel surveys,Baidu location-based services,and cell phone signaling data,which indicate high accuracy and efficiency of the model.The activity-based model has significant advantages,however,the paper suggests the necessity of considering development cost against practical effectiveness and using the four-step model as the basis for activity-based model develop-ment for application in other cities.
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