首页|2024年上半年新疆羊肉市场价格分析及下半年展望

2024年上半年新疆羊肉市场价格分析及下半年展望

Analysis of Mutton Price Fluctuations in Xinjiang Markets in the First Half of 2024 and Outlook for the Second Half

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[目的]旨在分析2024年上半年新疆羊肉市场价格的波动情况,展望下半年羊肉价格波动趋势.[方法]本研究在对2024年上半年新疆羊肉市场价格走势进行梳理的基础上,对与其紧密关联的全国羊肉、新疆主产区羊肉、其他肉类和饲料原料的市场价格进行分析和预测,从而实现对2024年下半年新疆羊肉价格的展望.[结果]研究发现,2024年上半年,新疆羊肉市场价格呈现持续下跌的态势.展望2024年下半年,新疆羊肉市场价格仍将继续下跌,但下跌空间有限.这主要归因于全国羊肉市场价格持续性下跌,国内供需宽松;主产区羊肉市场价格持续下跌,致使疆内供给增加;牛肉等肉类价格下跌,对羊肉消费的替代作用增强;饲料原料市场价格下跌,养殖成本对羊肉价格的支撑作用减弱.[结论]鉴于此,政府应从多维度扶持肉羊产业发展,财政、金融和保险共同发力;经营主体应满足多元化的市场需求,提高羊肉产品竞争力;消费者应灵活应对肉类市场价格变化,打造多样化的肉篮子产品组合.
[Objective]In order to analyze the mutton price fluctuations in Xinjiang markets in the first half of 2024 and to outlook the trend in the second half.[Methods]Based on sorting out the trend of mutton price in Xinjiang markets in the first half of 2024,the prices of mutton in the whole country,mutton in Xinjiang's main production areas,other meats and feed raw materials closely related to it were analyzed and predicted,and mutton price in Xinjiang in the second half of 2024 was predicted.[Results]It was found that in the first half of 2024,the mutton price of Xinjiang markets showed a continuous downward trend. Looking forward to the second half of 2024,the price would continue to decline,but the decline space was limited,being attributed to the continuous decline of national price and the loose domestic supply and demand,the continuous decline of mutton price in the main production areas and the increase of supply within Xinjiang,the decline of other meat prices such as beef and the increase of consumption substitution for mutton;the decline of feed raw material prices and the weakened support of breeding costs to mutton prices.[Conclusion]Based on the above analysis,the government should support the development of the sheep and goat industry from multiple dimensions,and jointly exert efforts in finance and insurance field;business entities should meet diverse market demands and improve the competitiveness of mutton products;consumers should flexibly respond to price changes in meat markets and create diversified meat basket product combinations.

Xinjiang muttonprice in marketfluctuation trendanalysis and outlooksuggestion and measure

鲁云峰、罗兰、刘娜娜

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新疆畜牧科学院畜牧业经济与信息研究所,乌鲁木齐 830011

新疆维吾尔自治区畜牧总站,乌鲁木齐 830000

新疆羊肉 市场价格 波动趋势 分析展望 建议措施

新疆现代农业产业技术体系—羊产业技术体系专项经费项目

XJARS-09

2024

草食家畜
新疆畜牧科学院

草食家畜

影响因子:0.406
ISSN:1003-6377
年,卷(期):2024.(5)