首页|新型城镇化对共同富裕的影响研究——基于Random Forests模型和Loess模型的分析

新型城镇化对共同富裕的影响研究——基于Random Forests模型和Loess模型的分析

扫码查看
基于2010-2021年31个省份的相关数据,运用综合评分法测度我国的新型城镇化水平和共同富裕程度,结合Random Forests模型和Loess模型分析新型城镇化对共同富裕的影响效应及其成因。研究发现,新型城镇化总体上可以促进共同富裕,但存在维度异质性与空间异质性。各维度对共同富裕的影响力从高至低排序依次为经济城镇化、人口城镇化、社会城镇化和生态城镇化,各区域按相关性从大到小排序依次为东北、东部、中部和西部地区。不同维度的城镇化对不同区域的共同富裕影响程度不同,对东部、中部和东北地区影响最大的是经济城镇化,对西部地区影响最大的是人口城镇化。基于此,提出以人的全面发展为目标、以经济城镇化为重点、以差异化发展策略为前提、以公共服务均等化为突破口推进共同富裕的政策建议。
Based on the macro data of 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021,this study uses the comprehensive scoring method to measure the level of urbanization and the de-gree of common prosperity.Combined with the Random Forests model and the Loess model,this study analyzes the impact and reasons of the new urbanization on common prosperity.The re-sults show that the new urbanization can generally promote com-mon prosperity,but there are dimensional heterogeneity and spa-tial heterogeneity.In descending order of influence by dimen-sion,they are economic urbanization,population urbanization,social urbanization,and ecological urbanization,and in de-scending order of relevance for regions,they are Northeast,East,Central and West.Moreover,there are different impacts on the common prosperity of different regions by different dimen-sions of urbanization.Economic urbanization has the greatest im-pact on common prosperity in the eastern,central,and north-eastern,while population urbanization has the greatest impact on the western.Therefore,in order to promote common prosperity,it must be based on the goal of all-round development of peo-ple,the focus of economic urbanization,the premise of differen-tiated development strategies,and the path of equalization of public services.

new urbanizationcommon prosperityRandom Forests ModelLoess Model

欧阳金琼、张俊蕾、王雨濛

展开 >

塔里木大学经济与管理学院

中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院

新型城镇化 共同富裕 Random Forests模型 Loess模型

国家社会科学基金一般项目

23BGL206

2024

城市问题
北京市社会科学院

城市问题

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.27
ISSN:1002-2031
年,卷(期):2024.(3)
  • 40