首页|创新发展政策对沿海城市海洋经济韧性的影响研究——来自海洋经济创新发展示范城市的证据

创新发展政策对沿海城市海洋经济韧性的影响研究——来自海洋经济创新发展示范城市的证据

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将海洋经济创新发展示范城市政策视为一项准自然实验,建立双重差分模型,使用中国2006-2022年38个沿海地级及以上城市的面板数据,研究创新发展政策对沿海城市海洋经济韧性的影响。实证分析结果表明,海洋经济创新发展示范城市政策显著提升了沿海城市海洋经济韧性,该结论在开展平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、缩尾回归、PSM-DID检验、样本变更等一系列稳健性检验之后依然成立。异质性分析表明,政策效果在北部海洋经济圈、大城市组和高人力资本水平组更为明显。机制分析表明,科技创新投入和数字经济发展能够强化海洋经济创新发展示范城市政策对沿海城市海洋经济韧性的提升作用。基于研究结论,提出以创新发展加快形成海洋新质生产力、持续巩固沿海城市海洋经济韧性的对策建议。
Regarding the policy of innovative develop-ment demonstration cities for marine economy as a quasi-natu-ral experiment,a difference-in-differences model is estab-lished to investigate the impact of innovative development policy on the marine economic resilience of coastal cities using panel data of 38 coastal prefecture level and above cities in China from 2006 to 2022.The empirical analysis shows that the policy of in-novative development demonstration cities for marine economy has significantly improved the marine economic resilience of coastal cities.This conclusion still holds true after conducting a series of robustness tests such as parallel trend test,placebo test,truncated regression,PSM-DID test,and sample change.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effects are more pro-nounced in the northern marine economic circle,large city group,and high human capital group.Mechanism analysis shows that investment in technological innovation and the devel-opment of the digital economy can strengthen the enhancing effect of the policy of innovative development demonstration cit-ies for marine economy on the marine economic resilience of coastal cities.Based on the above conclusions,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to accelerate the formation of ma-rine new quality productive forces through innovative develop-ment and continuously consolidate the marine economic resili-ence of coastal cities.

innovation-driven developmentmarine economic resilienceDifference-in-Differencesmechanism analysis

张卓群、冯潇、孙念新

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中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院

中国社会科学院生态文明研究所海洋经济学研究室

河北经贸大学财政税务学院

创新发展 海洋经济韧性 双重差分 机制分析

2024

城市问题
北京市社会科学院

城市问题

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.27
ISSN:1002-2031
年,卷(期):2024.(10)