Research on the Contagion Effect of Credit Risk among Enterprises:Based on the Supply Chain of the New Energy Vehicle Industry
In recent years,the supply chain system of the new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly,and the prevention and control of credit risks in its supply chain finance model are crucial for ensuring the smooth development of new energy vehicle enterprises.This study selects five representative enterprises from the supply chain of the new energy vehicle industry,employs the KMV model to calculate the default probability of these enterprises between the upstream and downstream of the supply chain,and measures their respective credit risks.Additionally,the Vine Copula model is used to construct the risk interdependence structure among these five enterprises,exploring the risk contagion effect among them.The research shows that credit risk contagion exists between upstream and downstream enterprises in the new energy vehicle supply chain,mainly concentrated in the middle and upstream enterprises.Meanwhile,the impact of the macro environment will further trigger the contagion of credit risks among enterprises in the new energy vehicle supply chain.Therefore,special attention from regulators is required to address the contagion effect of credit risk among downstream enterprises in the new energy vehicle supply chain to avoid systemic risks within the supply chain.Moreover,the author suggests that the government strengthen the supervision of the new energy vehicle industry to prevent supply chain financial risks.Simultaneously,enterprises should enhance the construction of supply chain networks and improve their core competitiveness to better cope with the macro environment shocks and prevent the formation and spread of credit risks.
New Energy VehiclesSupply Chain FinanceCredit Risk ContagionEnterprise Groups
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