摘要
党的二十大报告提出健全宏观经济体系是推动社会经济高质量发展的主要手段之一.现代货币政策作为宏观经济治理体系的重要组成部分,承担着保增长、促就业、平收支、稳物价、防风险、促转型的传统使命和新时代责任.构建包含马尔科夫区制转移动态随机一般均衡(MS-DSGE)模型,利用我国2009-2022年的宏观经济数据,测度不同类型货币政策对宏观经济调控的有效性与及时性.研究发现:常规型货币政策与非常规型货币政策在消费以及通货膨胀的调控上扮演了不同角色;技术进步冲击、政府支出冲击以及投资冲击对消费具有无货币政策差异的短期效应;常规型货币政策对偏好冲击造成的消费波动具有更好的吸收效果,而非常规型货币政策对外生货币政策冲击与价格加成冲击带来的消费波动具有更好的熨平作用;非常规型货币政策能更好地缓解技术进步冲击与偏好冲击、政府支出冲击、货币政策冲击以及价格加成冲击造成的通货膨胀波动,而常规型货币政策对投资冲击具有良好的吸收作用.基于上述结论,为有效应对挑战,政府应基于对外生冲击源头的准确辨识,制定和实施差异化、定向化、精准化的货币调控策略;持续推进利率市场化改革,加强货币政策与市场的沟通;统筹推进货币政策、财政政策与宏观审慎政策的调控,强化跨领域政策协调,增强宏观政策的取向一致性.
Abstract
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)proposed that improving the macroeconomic system is one of the main means to promote high-quality socio-economic development.As an important component of the macroeconomic governance system,modern monetary policy undertakes the traditional mission and new-era responsibilities of ensuring growth,promoting employment,balancing income and expenditure,stabilizing prices,preventing risks,and promoting transformation.Therefore,this study constructs the MS-DSGE model and employs macroeconomic data from 2009 to 2022 to measure the effectiveness and timeliness of different types of monetary policies on macroeconomic regulation.The research finds that conventional monetary policy and unconventional monetary policy play different roles in regulating consumption and inflation.The impact of technological progress,government expenditure,and investment has a short-term effect on consumption without any monetary policy differences.Conventional monetary policy is more effective in absorbing consumption fluctuations caused by preference shocks,while unconventional monetary policy is more effective in smoothing consumption fluctuations caused by exogenous monetary policy shocks and price markup shocks.Unconventional monetary policy is more effective in mitigating inflation fluctuations caused by technological progress,preference shocks,government expenditure shocks,monetary policy shocks,and price markup shocks.Conventional monetary policy is more effective in absorbing investment shocks.Based on the above conclusion,in order to effectively address challenges,the government should formulate and implement monetary policies based on accurate identification of exogenous shock sources,adopting differentiated,targeted,and precise monetary regulation strategies.In addition,it should continue to advance the liberalization of interest rates and enhance communication between monetary policy and market participants.Finally,it should coordinate the regulation of monetary policy,fiscal policy,and macroprudential policy,strengthen cross-sector policy coordination,and ensure consistency in the orientation of macroeconomic policies.
维普
万方数据