Trends and Predictions of Laryngeal Cancer Incidence and Death in China from 1990 to 2019
Objective: To explore the trend of incidence rate and mortality of laryngeal cancer in China, and to explore the im-pact of age, period and cohort on the incidence and mortality of laryngeal cancer, and to predict the incidence rate and mortality of laryngeal cancer in China in the next 20 years. Methods: Data on incidence rate and mortality of laryngeal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, as well as age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age standardized mortality (ASMR) were collected. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change trend of standardized incidence rate and standardized mortality of laryngeal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, and age period cohort model was used to analyze the age effect, period effect and cohort effect that af-fect the original incidence and death risk of laryngeal cancer in China. The R software BAPC package was used to predict the age standardized incidence rate and age standardized mortality of laryngeal cancer in China in the next 20 years. Results: The overall ASIR of Chinese residents with laryngeal cancer is on the rise (AAPC=0.99, P<0.05), with male ASIR showing an upward trend (AAPC=1.30, P<0.05) and female ASIR showing a downward trend (AAPC=-0.50, P<0.05); The overall ASMR of laryngeal cancer among Chinese residents shows a downward trend (AAPC=-1.11, P<0.05); The overall risk of laryngeal cancer incidence and mortality increases with age; Over time, the risk of laryngeal cancer increases in both males and females (RR=1.71, 1.29), and the risk of mortality from laryngeal cancer increases in males. People born later have a lower risk of developing and dying from laryngeal cancer; It is predicted that in 2039, the male incidence rate will be 4.83/100000, the female incidence rate will be 0.67/100000, the male mortality rate will be 1.29/100000, and the female mortality rate will be 29.42/100000. Conclusion: The overall ASIR of Chinese residents with laryngeal cancer is on the rise, while the ASMR is on the decline; The ASIR and ASMR of male laryngeal cancer are higher than those of females; The incidence and mortality risk of laryngeal cancer increase with age,and the incidence and mortality risk increase with age. The later the birth, the lower the incidence and mortality risk; It is predicted that the ASIR of laryngeal cancer among Chinese residents will continue to rise and the ASMR will decrease in the next 20 years.
万方数据
维普
