Analysis of Influencing Factors of Recurrent Abortion and Construction of Prediction Model
Objective:To construct a prediction model and evaluate its effectiveness based on the influencing factors of recur-rent abortion.Methods:80 patients with recurrent abortion and 80 healthy women who were admitted to hospital for physical exami-nation at the same period were selected as observation group and control group,respectively.The levels of autoimmune antibodies(anti-sperm antibody(ASAb),anti-endometrial antibody(AEMAb),anticardiolipin antibody(ACAb)and anti-ovarian antibody(AOAb)),anti-Mullerian hormone(AMH)and the male partners of biochemical three items of seminal plasma were compared be-tween the two groups.Multivariate Logistic regression was used to construct the prediction model,and receiver operating characteris-tic(ROC)curve was drawn to evaluate their prediction ability.Results:The serum levels of ASAb,AEMAb,ACAb and AOAb in the observation group were higher than those in the control group,while the levels of AMH were lower than that in the control group.The levels of fructose,seminal plasma zinc and α glucosidase in male partners in observation group were lower than those in control group(P＜0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that serum levels of ASAb,AEMAb,ACAb,AOAb,AMH,as well as fructose,seminal plasma zinc and α glucosidase were all influencing factors of recurrent abortion(OR=3.476,3.180,3.364,3.203,2.651,2.617,2.596,2.633,P＜0.05).ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the predic-tive model based on autoimmune antibody,AMH and seminal plasma biochemical indexes was 0.985,and the sensitivity and speci-ficity were 96.25％and 91.25％,respectively(P＜0.05).Conclusion:Autoimmune antibody,AMH and fructose,seminal plasma zinc,α glucosidase were all influencing factors of recurrent abortion,the pledic model has high prediction efficiency for recurrent abortion.
recurrent abortionautoimmune antibodyAMHseminal plasma indexesprediction model
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