Using the Shengjin Lake International Important Wetland as the study area,this research analyzes the wetland land-scape change characteristics and driving factors based on Landsat series remote sensing images from 2010 to 2020.The Ge-ographic Simulation and Optimization System(GeoSOS)model is employed to simulate and predict the wetland landscape in 2025 under different development scenarios(natural scenario,cultivated land protection scenario,and ecological pro-tection scenario),exploring the future evolution trends of the wetland landscape and providing related planning sugges-tions.The study findings indicate:(1)Between 2010 and 2020,the area of grassland slightly decreased,while the area of shoals and water bodies experienced some increase,leading to increased landscape complexity.This change is primarily in-fluenced by annual precipitation(natural factors)and GDP(human factors).(2)In the GeoSOS model,the Artificial Neural Network-Cellular Automata(ANN-CA)algorithm demonstrated the highest simulation accuracy,with an overall accuracy of 63.28％,a Kappa coefficient of 0.503,and a Figure of Merit(FoM)of 0.122,making it suitable for simula-ting and predicting lake wetland landscapes.(3)According to the wetland landscape prediction results for 2025 under dif-ferent development scenarios,implementing ecological protection strategies is the most effective way to safeguard the area of natural wetlands,maintaining the diversity and stability of the wetland landscape.
维普
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