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政策性议题、多元思维与拜登团队的对华决策

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由于对华决策议题类别的多样性,小集团思维仅能解释拜登团队在战略性决策议题的高度团结与共识现象,但不能解释其在政策性决策议题的分歧、矛盾和内斗现象.在政策性议题领域,多元思维对拜登团队的影响更明显.这种影响表现为,拜登团队的对华决策体现出典型的多元思维症状,如团队成员释放互相矛盾的信号、较多关于团队内矛盾的媒体报道、决策时间冗长或不连贯.导致多元思维症状产生的解释性动因也在拜登团队中明显存在,如制度性动因、政治性动因和规范性动因,都是导致拜登团队在对华决策过程中出现分歧、矛盾和内斗的主要原因.小集团思维和多元思维可以同时影响拜登政府的对华决策.小集团思维在战略性决策议题的影响更明显,多元思维在对华议程设置、政策执行等政策性决策议题的影响更明显.多元思维对拜登团队的影响说明,尽管拜登团队在战略定位上确立战略竞争原则,在大政方针上坚定强硬态度,但在政策性议程推进和执行层面,拜登团队依然受到传统决策政治的掣肘,团队在对华决策过程中依然存在较多分歧、矛盾和内斗,这使拜登政府推进对华战略竞争时经常面临阻碍并出现迟滞现象.
Policy Issues,Polythink,and Biden Administration's China Policy Making
Due to the diversity of the hierarchy of issues in policy making on China,groupthink can only explain the unity and consensus among Biden's team regarding high level China policy making issues.But it cannot explain its disagreements,contradictions,and internal conflicts on low-level China policy making.The impact of Polythink on the Biden team becomes more pronounced in the realm of low-level policymaking on China.This effect is manifested in the fact that the Biden team's decision-making on China reflects the typical symptoms of Polythink.These symptoms include conflicting messages from various team members,increased media coverage of internal team disagreements,and prolonged or disjointed decision-making process.Explanations for the symptoms of Polythink can clearly be found in Biden team,such as institutional,political,and normative explanations.All these factors contribute to disagreements,contradictions,and internal conflicts during Biden team's policy making process on China.Groupthink and Polythink can simultaneously influence the Biden administration's policy making on China.While the influence of groupthink is more conspicuous in high-level China policy making issues like formulating China strategies and fundamental policies,Polythink is more conspicuous in low-level China policy making issues such as setting China agendas and implementing policies.The impact of Polythink on the Biden team illustrates that although Biden team is strategically positioned to establish the principle of strategic competition and is tough on fundamental policy,they remain constrained by the traditional decision-making politics.It has led to disagreements,contradictions,and internal conflicts in the team's decision-making process on China.And it has caused the Biden administration to face frequent delays and obstacles in the deployment of plans to advance strategic competition with China.

Policy IssuesGroupthinkPolythinkCohesivenessBiden TeamChina Policy Making

孙冰岩、王栋

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国际关系学院国际政治系(北京100091)

北京大学国际关系学院

北京大学中外人文交流研究基地(北京100871)

政策性议题 多元思维 小集团思维 内聚力 拜登团队 对华决策

国家社会科学基金重大项目北京市高等学校卓越青年科学家计划

21@ZD172BJJWZYJH01201910001007

2024

东北亚论坛
吉林大学

东北亚论坛

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.879
ISSN:1003-7411
年,卷(期):2024.33(3)
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