Strategic Inertia and the Geopolitical Power-shaping Preferences of Land-based Traditional Powers
The"geopolitical renaissance"is an important label for the narrative of strategic competition among the great powers in the twenty-first century,and there have been far more initiatives calling for the importance of geopolitics than actual progress in geopolitical research.Although the success or failure of a great power's rise cannot be attributed solely to sea power or land power,without geopolitical control,the geographic space for a country's rise and development will be greatly reduced.Compared with the traditional sea power,the development of sea power by the traditional land power emphasizes more on the role of inertia.If the inertia is insufficient,the development of sea power may be aborted.If the inertia is too large,it may fall into overexpansion.Existing studies have not paid much attention to the geopolitical effects of strategic inertia,and the analysis of the"Thucydides Trap"lacks attention to spatial and temporal factors.The strategic choices of great powers are usually influenced by the interaction of systemic,cognitive,and operational strategic inertia.Relying on the neoclassical realism framework of grand strategy analysis,systemic inertia shaped by cross-cutting structural pressures is taken as the independent variable.Cognitive inertia,which is jointly shaped by strategic culture,strategic motivation,and strategic determination,serves as the mediating variable.Operational inertia serves as the dependent variable,and its measures include the speed of strategic tempo and the dynamics of reward structure.An assessment of the causes and effects of geopolitical power-shaping preferences can help increase the strategic margin of error of rising countries in response to geopolitical risks.
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