Research on Urban Construction Investment Corporation Debt Solution from the Perspective of Government Bond Replacement
This article analyzes the differences in investment preferences of domestic and foreign funds towards securities from the perspectives of subscription multi-ples,interest rate differentials between government bonds and urban construction investment corporation bonds,and changes in the holdings of overseas funds.It also preliminarily calculates feasible government bond replacement scales and proposes different urban construction investment corporation debt solution for different provinces.Research has found that:1.Before July in 2023,the government bond in-terest rates in each province were lower than the AAA-level urban investment cor-poration bond interest rates in the same province,and provinces with risk events had larger spreads;After July in 2023,the interest rate spread tends to narrow.2.In-vestors have a higher preference for government bonds in a certain province than for the urban investment corporation bonds,and domestic funds have a more pro-nounced preference for those in provinces where urban investment corporation risk events occur.3.According to the calculation of fiscal revenue and government debt scale in 2022,except for Jilin and Yunnan provinces,the scale of government bond issuance in other provinces has not yet reached the safety line,and there is room for government bond replacement.Based on the above empirical conclusions,this article proposes policy recommendations as follows:(1)Provinces with room for govern-ment bond replacement and a large interest rate difference between government bonds and urban investment corporation bonds should increase their government bond issuance limits to alleviate short-term liquidity pressure and get more room for the integration and transformation of urban investment corporation;(2)Prov-inces where there is feasible space for government bond replacement but no much difference in interest rates between government bonds and urban investment corpo-ration bonds should moderately increase the limit of local bond issuance,and still mainly solve the urban investment corporation debt by integrating local high-quali-ty assets and accelerating transformation;(3)Provinces that have not yet experi-enced risk events should get more support in policy,resource,and strategic guidence.The urban investment corporations in these provinces should be strength-ened to play a greater role in the integration of industry and finance.
Urban Investment Construction BondsGovernment BondsFeasible DebtReplacement Scale
万方数据
维普
