The Impact of Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements on Import and Export Trade——An Empirical Analysis Based on DID
The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan proposed to"Steadily and pru-dently promote RMB internationalization".In October 2022,the report of the 20th Party Congress proposed to"Advance RMB internationalization in an orderly man-ner",whic once again makes a systematic plan for the path of RMB internationali-zation.At present,China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with many countries and regions,which is an important way to achieve the stable growth of bi-lateral trade and the process of RMB internationalization.Based on annual unbal-anced panel data of 52 countries and regions from 2005 to 2022,the study uses a DID model to analyze the impact of bilateral currency swap agreement signing on import and export trade.The empirical results indicate that bilateral currency swap agreements have a significant positive effect on bilateral trade;the currency swap a-greements from China's perspective show differential characteristics of import and export trade,i.e.,the impact on China's import trade is significantly larger than that on export trade.Based on this,relevant policy recommendations are proposed:first,continue to promote the improvement and development of bilateral currency swap agreements;second,continue to promote the process of RMB internationaliza-tion in an orderly manner;the third is to adhere to the pattern of opening up to the outside world at a high level,and improve the imbalance of import and export trade.
Bilateral Currency Swap AgreementsImport and Export TradeDIDRMB Internationalization
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