The Dynamic Relationship between Prices and Taxation——An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel VAR Model
The price increase in 2023 was only 0.2％,becoming the lowest in nearly a decade.This will inevitably require the government to exert efforts and use active macroeconomic policies to regulate and boost market confidence.The impact of price fluctuations on tax growth deserves in-depth analysis,on this basis,it helps us to better assess the trend of tax economy and take targeted regulatory measures.This article selects provincial panel data in China from 2012 to 2022,constructs a panel VAR model,analyzes the dynamic interaction between prices and taxes,and further explores the dynamic relationship between prices and multiple variables of major taxes such as value-added tax,consumption tax,and corporate income tax.The empirical results indicate that there is a bidirectional causal relationship be-tween prices and taxation.Price levels have a positive impact on taxation that is first strong and then weak,and this impact is long-lasting.Taxation can have a strong negative impact on price levels in the short term,but tends to zero in the long term.The impact of price level changes on taxation is most pronounced in the central re-gion and middle-income groups;and the impact of tax changes on prices is most pronounced in the western region and high-income groups.Finally,starting from stabilizing prices and tax policies,it is proposed to emphasize the combination of cross cycle and countercyclical macroeconomic regulation,and focus on improving the quality and efficiency of tax policies;optimize the tax system structure and in-crease the proportion of direct taxes;and continue to implement tax reduction and fee reduction policies,with expanding domestic demand as the breakthrough point to boost market confidence.
PriceTax RevenuePanel VAR ModelTax System Structure
万方数据
