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国际流动性冲击对我国金融稳定的影响及时变特征研究

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首先采用SDR权重加权法及主成分法分别对国际流动性与我国金融稳定性进行测度,结果表明短期内存在波动性,长期内均呈上升趋势.在此基础上基于SVAR模型冲击响应分析,国际流动性冲击和M2对我国金融稳定有正向的冲击影响,而GDP则有负向的冲击影响.依据方差分解结果,国际流动性冲击是影响我国金融稳定的最主要因素.依据断点回归验证了国际流动性冲击对我国金融稳定的影响具有时变特征.我国货币政策当局可根据经济形势,综合运用数量型货币政策M2和价格型货币政策利率,在促进经济增长的同时化解国际流动性冲击对我国金融稳定的影响.
The Impact of International Liquidity Shocks on China's Financial Stability and Time Varies Characteristics
Firstly,the SDK weighted method and principal component method were used to measure international liquidity and China's financial stability,and the re-sults showed that there was volatility in the short term and an upward trend in the long term.Based on the shock response analysis of SVAR model,international liq-uidity shocks and M2 have a positive impact on China's financial stability,while GDP has a negative impact on GDP.According to the results of variance decomposi-tion,international liquidity shocks are the most important factors affecting China's financial stability.Based on breakpoint regression,the time-varying characteristics of the impact of international liquidity shocks on China's financial stability are veri-fied.China's monetary policy authorities could adopt quantitative monetary policy of M2 and price-based monetary policy of interest rates according to the economic sit-uation to promote economic growth while resolving the impact of international liq-uidity shocks on China's financial stability.

Liquidity ShockFinancial StabilityMonetary Policy

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鲁东大学商学院,山东烟台 264025

流动性冲击 金融稳定 货币政策

2024

当代金融研究
中国人民银行重庆营业管理部,西南大学,重庆日报报业集团

当代金融研究

ISSN:2096-4153
年,卷(期):2024.7(11)