The Scale and Strategic Positioning of China's Oil Refining Industry in the"15th Five-Year Plan"
Impacted by the slowdown of macroeconomic growth and the rapid development of new energy vehicles,China's consumption of refined oil products has already peaked in 2023,and oil consumption is gradually entering the peak plateau period.It is expected to reach a peak of 790-800 million tons around 2027.During the"15th Five-Year Plan"period,in the face of the two major situations of the peak of oil demand and the achievement of the"dual carbon"goals,the development orientation of the refining and chemical industry has shifted from"expanding the scale"to"strengthening in an all-round way".It is positioned to serve and support the construction of a modern industrial system,meet the new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the mainstay and the domestic and international"dual cycles",and contribute to the construction of a new energy system.The focus of the industry has shifted to high-quality development characterized by"structural optimization,high-end products,innovation-driven,green and low-carbon,and strong competitiveness".After the peak of oil demand is reached,it does not mean that the production capacity scale will decline rapidly.Considering the need to meet the demands of both domestic and foreign markets and the changes in the product structure of"oil-to-chemicals conversion",it is appropriate to control China's oil refining scale at 900-1 000 million tons per year in the medium and long term.
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