2025年亚欧天然气价差波动趋势分析
Fluctuation Trend of Gas Price Difference between Asia and Europe in 2025
闫涵1
作者信息
- 1. 中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司,北京 100728
- 折叠
摘要
亚洲与欧洲天然气市场的价格联动性日益显著,深入分析亚欧天然气价差变化对于跨区贸易及现货套期保值具有重要意义.针对2025年亚欧天然气价差波动趋势进行分析,指出俄乌冲突增加了市场不确定性,进一步强化了亚欧天然气市场价格的联系.通过回顾历史价差,聚焦俄乌管线供应这一关键变量,预计2025年欧洲天然气市场将面临供应紧张局面,进而促使亚欧天然气价差缩小.此外,利用市场因素评分法,综合考虑了运费、气候、供应情况、库存水平以及替代能源价格等多重因素,得出结论:预计2025年第二季度,亚欧天然气价差将得到一定支撑;至第四季度,价差可能呈现疲软态势.
Abstract
The price correlation between the Asian and European natural gas markets is becoming increasingly remarkable,making a thorough analysis of the price differences between Asia and Europe is crucial for cross-regional trade and spot hedging.This study analyzes the fluctuation trends of the Asia-Europe natural gas price difference for 2025,highlighting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased market uncertainty and further strengthened the market linkage between Asia and Europe.By reviewing historical price differences and focusing on the key variable of Russia-Ukraine pipeline supply,it's predicted that the European natural gas market will face supply tightness in 2025,which will lead to a reduction in the Asia-Europe natural gas price difference.Furthermore,comprehensively considering multiple factors such as freight rates,climate,supply,inventory,and alternative energy prices,with the market factor scoring method,and draw the following conclusions:it is expected that the price difference will be supported in the second quarter of 2025;while in the fourth quarter,the price difference may show weakness.
关键词
亚欧天然气/价差/波动/俄乌管线/市场因素Key words
Asia-Europe natural gas/price difference/fluctuation/Russia-Ukraine pipeline/market factors引用本文复制引用
出版年
2025
NETL
NSTL
万方数据