Why the Binding Strategy Failed—A Case Study from the Evolution of Russia-Ukraine Relations
Alliance politics is an important phenomenon of international relations,and Binding Strategy is the core issue of alliance politics.So,why do the binding strategies succeed or fail?Generally speaking,the success or failure of a binding strategy is largely affected by the tripartite interaction among the Binder,the Target and the Adversary.First of all,the Target at the center of the"tug-of-war"between the Binder and the Adversary always has the motivation to deviate from the alliance with the Binder.The deviation motivation is"filtered"by the principle of"seeking benefits and avoiding harm"in the process of transforming into deviation behavior,and the process of"seeking benefits and avoiding harm"is externalized as a dynamic game between the Target's perceived urgency of the threat and the attractiveness of alternative choices.Then,this game interaction process is influenced by the Binder and the Adversary:the Binder's binding tactics and the Adversary's wedge tactics shape the Target's strategic choices by regulating the Target's perceived urgency of the threat and the attractiveness of alternative choices,thereby determining the outcome of the binding strategy of the Binder.The four different stages of the evolution of Russia-Ukraine relations in the post-Cold War period have basically verified the rationality and applicability of the above analytical framework:in the first stage,Russia's binding strategy was successful,while the latter three stages all ended in varying degrees of failure.In particular,the outbreak,stalemate and escalation of the Ukraine crisis constituted a true portrayal of Russia's binding strategy failure.
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