首页|上海合作组织区域安全治理的生成机制与成效评估

上海合作组织区域安全治理的生成机制与成效评估

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随着乌克兰危机影响的持续外溢,欧亚地区安全局势 日趋复杂,上海合作组织区域安全治理面临重大挑战.在新形势下,上海合作组织如何推进区域安全治理至关重要.文章认为,成员国的安全威胁感知和政策取向在上海合作组织区域安全治理中发挥着重要作用.大体而言,处于高清晰度的约束性环境时,成员国的威胁感知最强,政策取向为必须参与,上海合作组织区域安全治理成效显著;处于低清晰度的约束性环境时,成员国的威胁感知较为强烈,政策取向为选择性参与,上海合作组织区域安全治理成效较好;处于高清晰度的包容性环境时,成员国的威胁感知弱化,政策取向为非必须参与,上海合作组织区域安全治理成效一般;处于低清晰度的包容性环境时,成员国具有较弱的威胁感知,政策取向为选择性参与,上海合作组织区域安全治理成效较差.通过对2005年"颜色革命"、2022年乌克兰危机、2001年"九一一"事件、区域内无重大安全冲击事件的案例分析,这一理论假设得到了充分验证.当前,上海合作组织须以解决非传统安全问题为主要议题,以整合安全治理主体为主要动力,以提升国际话语权为重要保障,进而深入推进区域安全治理.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization:Assessing the Emergence and Effectiveness of Regional Security Governance
As the Ukraine Crisis continues to reverberate internationally,the security situation in Eurasia has become increasingly complex,posing significant challenges to security governance vis-à-vis the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO).This article argues that member state perceptions of security threats and policy orientations play important roles in SCO security governance efforts.In general,when faced with a clear and highly constraining external environment,member states will perceive the strongest levels of security threats and be compelled to participate,resulting in highly effective regional security governance.On the other hand,when external constraints are significant,but less clearly defined,members states will still perceive relatively high levels of threats,but participation will be more selective,resulting in moderate levels of effectiveness vis-à-vis SCO security cooperation.For cases in which the external environment is clearly unconstraining,the threat perception of member states will remain low,and participation will be deemed unnecessary,resulting in weak effectiveness of SCO security governance.For cases in which there is a lack of clarity regarding the nature of an un-constraining environment,member states will have low levels of threat perception,and will participate selectively,resulting in relatively poor effectiveness of security governance.

Shanghai Cooperation OrganizationUkraine CrisisRegional Security GovernancePerceptions of Security ThreatsPolicy Orientations

陈小鼎、刘淑嵘

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兰州大学政治与国际关系学院

上海合作组织 乌克兰危机 区域安全治理 威胁感知 政策取向

中央高校基本科研业务费专项兰州大学项目中央高校基本科研业务费专项兰州大学项目

2023jbkyzx00822lzujbkytd004

2024

当代亚太
中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院,中国亚洲太平洋学会

当代亚太

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.685
ISSN:1007-161X
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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