Intensity of Great-Power Competition,American Commitments to Vietnam and the Evolution of Vietnam's Bandwagoning with the U.S.
The United States has proactively cultivated ties with Vietnam as part of its strategic competition with China.While so,Vietnam's responses to U.S.strategic competition with China have varied over time.Following the U.S.introduction of the Asia Pacific Rebalancing strategy,Vietnam exhibited a high level of enthusiasm and proactively sought cooperation;when Trump introduced his version of the Indo-Pacific Strategy,Vietnam signaled a more cautious attitude;finally,when Biden introduced his version of the Indo-Pacific,Vietnam once again expressed enthusiasm and a desire for limited cooperation.Vietnam's attitude towards U.S.strategies vis-à-vis China depends primarily on the intensity of Sino-U.S.competition and on the level and credibility of U.S.commitments to Vietnam.The intensity of Sino-U.S.competition determines the risks that Vietnam faces,while the level and credibility of U.S.commitments determine the extent of the benefits Vietnam stands to gain.The Obama administration's low-intensity competition with China and high,credible commitments to Vietnam allowed it to reap significant benefits with relatively low risk,leading to active cooperation with the Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy.The Trump administration's high-intensity competition with China but low-credibility commitments to Vietnam resulted in limited benefits for Vietnam despite high risks,causing Vietnam to be cautious in its cooperation with Trump's"Indo-Pacific"strategy.The Biden administration has continued high-intensity competition with China,but has increased the credibility of its commitments,resulting in higher benefits for Vietnam amid high risks,leading to limited cooperation with the Biden administration's"Indo-Pacific"strategy.As great power competition continues over the long term,Vietnam is expected to maintain a cautious"bamboo diplomacy."Its policy actions will vary with fluctuations in Sino-U.S.relations and in U.S.policy towards Vietnam.In this regard,China should promote the construction of a"China-Vietnam Community with a Shared Future"and remain vigilant about political and security cooperation between Vietnam and the U.S.
Vietnam-U.S.RelationsAsia-Pacific RebalancingIndo-Pacific StrategyCredibility of CommitmentsBandwagoning
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