首页|国家间政治、相互依赖武器化与中国供应链安全——来自微观企业的经验证据

国家间政治、相互依赖武器化与中国供应链安全——来自微观企业的经验证据

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伴随国际局势的动荡与国际分工体系的重构,中国供应链安全成为备受关注的议题.在地缘政治环境不断恶化的背景下,国家间政治对中国供应链安全产生了何种影响至今仍缺乏系统性的经验证据.作者基于国际政治经济学的视角,首次利用FactSet Revere数据库所提供的2003~2022年中国企业全球供应商网络数据,构建了中国企业供应链横向安全和纵向安全指标,并在此基础上实证研究了国家间政治对中国供应链安全的影响及内在机制.研究结果显示,双边外交立场的差异显著威胁了中国供应链安全,且对中国国有企业的影响尤甚.究其根源,伴随外交分歧的增加,相关国家将贸易依赖关系武器化,对华实施贸易保护主义政策,进而影响中国供应链安全.异质性分析表明,在行业方面,高技术产业的供应链安全受国家间政治的冲击更为突出;就地区而言,在外交分歧加剧时,在贸易依赖关系更为密切的国家,中国供应链表现出更强的韧性;而对北约成员国与美国非北约主要盟国而言,外交分歧对中国企业供应链安全的威胁更大.文章的研究为全面评估当前日益严峻的国际政治环境对中国经济安全的冲击提供了启示.
Interstate Politics,Weaponized Interdependences,and Supply Chain Security of China:An Empirical Study from Micro Enterprises
With the turbulence in the international situation and the restructuring of the international division system,the security of China's supply chain has become a critical issue.However,more literature is needed to investigate the impact of interstate political relations on the security of China's supply chain.Using the global supplier data of Chinese enterprises in 2003-2022 from the FactSet Revere database,this paper measures horizontal and vertical supply chain security indicators and empirically investigates the impact and mechanisms of interstate politics on the security of China's supply chains from the perspective of the international political economy.The results show that differences in bilateral diplomatic stances pose a significant threat to the security of Chinese enterprises'supply chains,particularly for Chinese state-owned enterprises.The mechanism is that the mounting diplomatic disagreements prompt relevant countries to weaponize their trade interdependence,thereby imposing trade policies against China and impacting the security of China's supply chains.This research provides critical insights into the implications of the evolving international political environment for China's economic security.

Interstate politicsWeaponized InterdependencesSupply chain securityEmpirical research

杨攻研、刘聪

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辽宁大学俄罗斯东欧中亚研究中心

辽宁大学国际经济政治学院

国家间政治 相互依赖武器化 供应链安全 实证研究

2024

当代亚太
中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院,中国亚洲太平洋学会

当代亚太

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.685
ISSN:1007-161X
年,卷(期):2024.(5)