首页|结构韧性、反馈进程与地区安全风险的生成机制——基于美国"印太"海洋战略的分析

结构韧性、反馈进程与地区安全风险的生成机制——基于美国"印太"海洋战略的分析

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近年来,风险已成为国际安全研究的主流话语,成为界定安全的主要概念.海洋是大国战略博弈的主要场域,大国博弈导致海上系统性风险的生成.国际安全系统是国家间系统性风险发生的空间,因此需要从系统层面界定风险生成的条件与过程.当系统中的行为体造成损失的概率与程度均提升时,系统进入高度风险的状态.系统风险的成因包含结构与进程两个方面,即当结构韧性下降(脆弱性上升)以及进程中正反馈占主导时,系统将进入高度风险的状态.海洋安全战略是美国"印太"战略的核心内容之一,体现了美国海权战略与地区战略的深度互嵌.其在推进过程中将从组织形态、组织方式与单元特征三个方面影响系统结构的韧性,并从进程形成、进程发展、进程升级三个方面促使系统进入正反馈进程,因而导致"印太"海洋安全系统风险的生成.
Structural Resilience,Feedback Processes,and the Mechanisms of Regional Security Risk Generation:An Analysis Based on the U.S."Indo-Pacific"Maritime Strategy
Risk has become the prevailing discourse in international security studies.The international security system is the space in which systemic risks between states arise,and thus it is essential to define the conditions and processes of risk generation at the systemic level.When the probability and severity of losses caused by the actors in the system both increase,the system enters a state of high risk.The causes of systemic risk encompass both structure and process.Specifically,when structural resilience decreases(or vulnerability increases)and positive feedback dominates the process,the system enters a high-risk state.Maritime security strategy is a core component of the United States'"Indo-Pacific"strategy.During its advancement,this strategy will impact the resilience of the system's structure through three aspects:organizational form,organizational way,and unit characteristics.Additionally,it will promote the system into a positive feedback process in three phases:process formation,process development,and process escalation.

The"Indo-Pacific"StrategyMaritime SecuritySecurity RisksStructural ResiliencePositive Feedback

张景全、巩浩宇

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山东大学东北亚学院

北京大学国际关系学院

"印太"战略 海洋安全 安全风险 结构韧性 正反馈

2024

当代亚太
中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院,中国亚洲太平洋学会

当代亚太

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.685
ISSN:1007-161X
年,卷(期):2024.(5)