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北川县近30年气温降水变化特征

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根据北川县 1992-2019 年逐月温度、1992-2022 年逐月降水量资料,采用趋势分析法、Mann-ken-dall检验等方法分析了北川县温度、降水变化特征及其相关性.结果表明:1992-2019 年,北川县年平均气温与四季气温均呈上升趋势,年平均气温的增温倾向率是(0.36℃/10a),年平均气温于 1998 年、2001 年、2004 年、2005年发生了突变,四季平均气温具有一定周期性变化特征;1992-2022 年,北川县多年平均降水量为 886.3 mm,年平均降水量呈上升趋势,降水变化倾向率是(3.9 mm/10a),降水量增加的主要原因是大暴雨频率增加,年降水量于2013 年、2016 年发生了突变,且存在周期性特征;强降雨天气主要发生在夏季,呈现出连续增多趋势;降水量与气温的变化呈正相关关系.研究结果可为北川地区地质灾害的防治提供一定的理论支撑.
Characteristics of temperature and precipitation changes in Beichuan County in the last 30 years
Based on the monthly temperature data of Beichuan County from 1992 to 2019,the monthly precipitation data from 1992 to 2022,the variations of temperature and rainfall of Beichuan County are analyzed by linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test.The results show that from 1992-2019,the average annual and seasonal mean temperature show an increas-ing trend,the increasing slope for average annualtemperature is 0.36℃/10a,the average annual temperature changed ab-ruptly in 1998,2001,2004,and 2005,and seasonal average temperatures exhibit periodic variation characteristics;From 1992-2022,the average annual precipitation in Beichuan County was886.3 mm,showing an increasing trend,and the in-creasing slope forprecipitation is 3.9 mm/10a,The increase in precipitation was mainly due to the increased frequency of heavy rainstorms,annual precipitation changed abruptly in 2013 and 2016,and it exhibits periodic characteristics;heavy rainfall weather occurs mainly in summer,and shows a continuous increasing trend;The temperature have a positive correla-tion with precipitation.The research results can provide the theoretical support for geological disaster prevention in Beichuan.

Beichuan Countytemperaturerainfallvariation characteristicsgeological disasters

张文琳

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四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都 610065

北川县 气温 降水 变化特征 地质灾害

四川大学大学生科研创新项目

202310611105

2024

地下水
陕西省水工程勘察规划研究院 全国地下水信息网 陕西省水利学会

地下水

影响因子:0.219
ISSN:1004-1184
年,卷(期):2024.46(3)
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