基于PI方法的华北2019年以来3次Ms≥5.0地震回溯性预测研究
Retrospective Study on the Forecasting of the Three Ms≥5.0 Earthquakes Since 2019 in North China Based on PI Method
宋程 1张永仙 2夏彩韵 3毕金孟 1张小涛 4吴永加 4徐小远1
作者信息
- 1. 天津市地震局,天津 300201
- 2. 中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京 100036
- 3. 辽宁省地震局,沈阳 110031
- 4. 中国地震台网中心,北京 100045
- 折叠
摘要
本文应用图像信息(PI)方法对2023年山东平原Ms5.5地震、2021年江苏大丰海域Ms5.0地震和2020年河北古冶Ms5.1地震进行了回溯性预测研究.以华北局部(32°N～42°N,114°E～122°E)为研究区域,在网格尺度分别为0.5°×0.5°和1.0°×1.0°且预测窗长为5 a的两组参数模型下,获取2019-2027年逐年滑动的预测窗热点演化图像.结果显示,当网格尺度为1.0°×1.0°时,PI热点效果优于0.5°×0.5°网格,且对平原地震和大丰海域地震的发震位置指示作用较好.当时间窗长和归 一化阈值绝对值同时增大,个别窗口存在古冶地震的有效热点,但未找到热点能同时覆盖3个地震震中所在网格的参数模型.不同参数模型下的PI热点显示,未来3～4 a郯庐断裂带渤海段存在发生Ms≥5.0地震的风险.本文研究结果对于华北局部地区Ms≥5.0地震危险性分析具有一定的参考意义.
Abstract
In this paper,the local area of North China(32°N～42°N,114°E～122°E)was chosen as studied region.Regarding the 2023 Shandong Pingyuan Ms5.5 earthquake,2021 Dafeng sea area Ms5.0 earthquake and 2020 Hebei Guye Ms5.1 earthquake as the target earthquakes,the Pattern Informatics(PI)method was applied to the retrospective re-search on the forecasting seismic activity risk of the three earthquakes.With parameters of forecasting window length 5 years and grid size 0.5°×0.5°/1.0°× 1.0°,the period from 2019 to 2027 of successive hotspot forecasting window images sliding year by year were ob-tained.The results show that PI hotspot effect with the grid size 1.0°× 1.0 ° is better than 0.5° ×0.5°.And it has a good indication effect on the location of Pingyuan and Dafeng sea area earthquakes.When the time window length and the absolute value of the normaliza-tion threshold increasing,only a few windows have effective hotspots for the Guye earth-quake.But no parameter model that can simultaneously cover the epicenter grid of the three earthquakes has been found.The PI hotspots under different parameter models indi-cate,there is a risk of Ms≥5.0 earthquake in the Bohai Rim region of the Tan-Lu fault zone in the following 3～4 years.The results of this paper can provide certain reference significance about seismic hazard analysis of Ms≥5.0 earthquake for local area of North China.
关键词
2023年平原Ms5.5地震/2021年大丰海域Ms5.0地震/2020年古冶Ms5.1地震/图像信息方法/热点迁移Key words
The 2023 Pingyuan Ms5.5 earthquake/The 2021 Dafeng sea area Ms5.0 earthquake/The 2020 Guye Ms5.1 earthquake/Pattern informatics method/Hotspot migration引用本文复制引用
基金项目
天津市自然科学基金青年基金(22JCQNJC01070)
天津市地震局重点科研项目(Zd202402)
天津市地震局重点科研项目(Zd202304)
地震科技星火计划(XH24005YA)
中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务项目(2024010111)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据