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基于事故树的轨道交通事故致因分析及预防研究

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基于事故树对轨道交通事故致因分析及预防进行了研究.首先,本文从事故类型、特点以及成因3 个角度对轨道交通事故进行探讨;其次,构建列车火灾、列车碰撞和列车脱轨的事故树模型,并对其进行最小割集、最小径集的分析,进一步计算基本事件的结构重要度;最后通过对4.2 台湾列车脱轨事故运用事故树进行实例分析,验证本文方法的有效性.结果显示,除了关注人、车等因素外,更应重视外部基础设施防护的建设及科技手段(电子监控)的应用,以有效减少事故的发生.
Research on the Causal Analysis and Prevention of Rail Transit Accidents Based on Accident Trees
This study investigates the causative factors and prevention strategies for rail transit accidents using fault tree analysis(FTA).Initially,the analysis covers three aspects:types of accidents,their characteristics,and the reasons for their occurrence.Subsequently,three types of fault trees are established for train fires,train conflicts,and train derailment,followed by the calculation of minimal cut sets,minimal path sets,and the structural importance of basic events.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through a case study of the 4.2 Taiwan train derailment incident.Findings indicate that,in addition to focusing on human and vehicle factors,greater emphasis should be placed on the construction of external infrastructure protection and the application of technological means(such as electronic monitoring)to effectively reduce the occurrence of accidents.

accident treeaccident causerail transitminimum cuttingminimum setstructural importance

党羽童、罗薇、魏思龙

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中铁快运股份有限公司,北京 100055

北京建筑大学 通用航空技术北京实验室,北京 100044

事故树 事故致因 轨道交通 最小割集 最小径集 结构重要度

2025

交通工程
北京交通工程学会

交通工程

ISSN:2096-3432
年,卷(期):2025.25(1)