首页|考虑交通韧性的基于MGWR模型的建成环境对公交客流影响分析

考虑交通韧性的基于MGWR模型的建成环境对公交客流影响分析

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以北京市公交客流数据为分析样本,结合兴趣点及用地等多源数据,选取北京市6 个城区作为研究对象,运用多尺度地理加权回归模型(MGWR)探究公交站点周边建成环境对公交客流的影响,并与其他模型进行对比分析.结果表明①相较于全局模型(OLS),考虑空间异质性的局部模型(MGWR和GWR)在探究公交客流与建成环境的关系上表现出更优的评价结果,MGWR的拟合效果最佳;②公交客流受多因素影响,并在空间上呈现出明显的聚集性;③各变量的影响程度体现出空间异质性规律,商业服务设施和交通服务设施与公交客流存在正相关,增强相关设施的建设,不仅有助于公共交通的发展,还能提升城市交通系统在面对突发事件或变化时的适应性和恢复能力,从而提高城市交通韧性.
Analysis of the Impact of the Built Environment on Bus Ridership Based on the MGWR Model
This study utilizes bus ridership data from Beijing,integrating multi-source data such as points of interest(POI)and land use.Six districts within Beijing's central urban area are selected as the study area.The multi-scale geographically weighted regression(MGWR)model is applied to investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the built environment's impact on bus ridership around bus stops,with comparative analysis against other models.The findings reveal that:① Local models accounting for spatial heterogeneity(MGWR and GWR)outperform the global model(OLS)in analyzing variations in bus ridership,with MGWR providing the best fit;②Bus ridership is influenced by multiple factors and exhibits significant spatial clustering;③The influence of each variable shows spatial heterogeneity,with commercial services and transportation facilities positively correlated with bus ridership.Enhancing the construction of these facilities not only contributes to public transportation development but also improves the adaptability and recovery capacity of the urban transportation system in response to emergencies or changes,thereby strengthening urban transportation resilience.

public transportbuilt environmentpublic transit flowsMGWRGIS

孙煦、马天行、林坤、郭子艾

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北京建筑大学土木与交通工程学院,北京 100044

福州市规划设计研究院集团有限公司,福州 350108

公共交通 建成环境 公交客流 多尺度地理加权回归模型 GIS

2025

交通工程
北京交通工程学会

交通工程

ISSN:2096-3432
年,卷(期):2025.25(1)