Taking Kuandian County in Liaoning Province as an example, the author extract four rainstorm fac-tors: the annual rainstorm days, annual of rainstorm depth, annual average rainstorm intensity and rainstorm contribution, through the daily precipitation data from 1955 to 2012 and use the Kolmogorov-Smimov method to determine optimal probability distribution for each single factor. For the multifaceted rainstorm factor, we use AIC and RMSE test to confirm the best fitted copulas connect function suitable for rainstorm factor by in-troducing the copula function and building three-dimensional joint distribution, and analyze the probability of rainstorm and characteristics of return period with many combined factors. Research shows that:1) The joint of annual rainstorm days, annual of rainstorm depth and annual average rainstorm intensity is suitable for reac-tion joint return period of rainstorm factor in Kuandian County; In Kuandian County, joint return period is short and distribute on 0-2 years, co-occurrence return period is longer, concentrated in around 200 years;the change trend of two kinds of return period is consistent, it has synchronization effect, this reflect inseparable of rainstorm factor. 2) The univariate reflect just one factor of information in rainstorm and doesn't involved in the relationship between factors;Three-dimensional copulas joint can present the internal information between heavy elements from three aspects and closer to the actual;Multiple factors of rainstorm, as copulas function on the rainstorm analysis provides a broad prospects.
Copula functionthree-dimensional jointrainstorm factorsreturn period
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据
