首页|区域环境与科技:模式识别、历时演化与互动效应研究

区域环境与科技:模式识别、历时演化与互动效应研究

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生态环境与科技创新是社会发展中不容忽视的两大系统,两者之间既相互独立又彼此交融,推动环境与科技协同发展对于实现可持续发展具有重要意义.本文在分析环境与科技互动机制基础上,基于四象限分区模型将环境与科技划分为4类模式:同步领先型、环境优先型、科技优先型、同步滞后型,对中国30个省(市、区)2009-2018年面板数据进行研究,并采用联立方程模型与贝叶斯向量自回归模型分析其相互影响及互动关系.研究发现:在观测期内,区域环境与科技创新总体上仍处于升级阶段,且其共存模式呈现出东部优于中西部地区的非均衡格局;环境质量对科技发展呈现一定的正向影响;科技创新对环境质量的影响并不显著;实现环境与科技的良性互动是一个长期过程.并提出对策建议:因地制宜制定环境与科技发展政策;科技创新要坚持绿色导向,兼顾生态效益;生态建设要积极培育良好的科技创新环境.
Regional environment and technology:Pattern recognition,diachronic evolution and interactive effects
Ecological environment and scientific and technological innovation are two systems that can not be ignored in social development.They are independent and blend with each other.Promoting the coordinated de-velopment of environment and science and technology is of great significance to realize sustainable develop-ment.Based on the analysis of the interaction mechanism between environment and technology,this article di-vides environment and technology into four types of models based on the four quadrant partition model:syn-chronous leading,environmental priority,technology priority,and synchronous lagging.The study uses panel data from 30 regions in China from 2009 to 2018 as samples,and uses simultaneous equation models and Bayesian vector autoregressive models to analyze their mutual influence and interaction relationship.The res-ults show that:1)During the observation period,the regional environment and technological innovation were still in an overall upgrading stage,and their coexistence pattern showed an unbalanced pattern in which the eastern region was superior to the central and western regions;2)Environmental quality has a positive impact on the development of science and technology;3)The impact of scientific and technological innovation on en-vironmental quality is not significant;4)It is a long-term process to realize the benign interaction between en-vironment and science and technology.It also puts forward countermeasures and suggestions:develop environ-mental and technological development policies tailored to local conditions,strengthen long-term management mechanisms for technological innovation and ecological environment,and implement differentiated develop-ment strategies based on local resource endowments;technological innovation should adhere to a green orienta-tion,take into account ecological benefits to the greatest extent possible,and pay more attention to ecological environment protection while developing new technologies and products.It should also provide important tech-nical support for ecological environment construction;ecological construction should actively cultivate a good environment for scientific and technological innovation,allowing the vitality of scientific and technological in-novation to fully emerge,gradually forming a good atmosphere for innovation,and thus forming a good situ-ation where the ecological environment feeds back scientific and technological innovation.

environment qualityscience and technology innovationsimultaneous equation modelBayesian vector autoregressive model(BVAR model)

俞立平、张矿伟、徐航、沈洁、洪金珠

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浙江工商大学统计与数学学院,浙江杭州 310018

浙江工商大学统计数据工程技术与应用协同创新中心,浙江杭州 310018

环境质量 科技创新 联立方程模型 贝叶斯向量自回归模型(BVAR模型)

浙江省自然科学基金重点项目浙江省重点建设高校优势特色学科

LZ21G0300012016A08

2024

地理科学
中国科学院 东北地理与农业生态研究所

地理科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:3.117
ISSN:1000-0690
年,卷(期):2024.44(1)
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