Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the development of inbound tourism in China
The implementation of the Belt and Road initiative has brought a new development pattern for China's inbound tourism.How to identify the policy effects brought about by the Belt and Road Initiative,and analyze the different mechanisms of its role towards a differentiated policy support environment is a key issue to effectively enhance the policy implementation effect in order to guide different regional tourism industries to grasp the development strategy.This paper empirically examines the policy effects of the Belt and Road Initiat-ive on the development of inbound tourism using a panel of 31 Chinese provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)from 2007 to 2019,combining super-efficiency and global Malmquist indices with the PSM-DID(Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Difference)method.The research results are as follows:1)The Belt and Road initiative has led to a positive trend in the average development capacity of inbound tourism,and the development level of the tourism industry has been effectively improved,but the analysis of the dynamic evolution of efficiency shows that the differences in the spatial pattern of China's inbound tourism industry have not yet been effectively alleviated,which is manifested in the obvious spatial agglomeration of the"one road"region and the tendency of the"one belt"region to develop towards spatial polarization;2)A quasi-nat-ural experiment based on PSM-DID,using benchmark regression analysis and robustness tests,verified that the Belt and Road Initiative did significantly improve the efficiency of inbound tourism in the regions along the route,but the results of the dynamic effects test indicated that the implementation effect of the initiative lagged in both the Belt and Road regions,and that the policy response and the intensity of the policy effect were better in the Road region than in the Belt region;3)The policy effects of the Belt and Road initiative are regionally heterogeneous.A study of the differences in the mechanism of action of the external support environment on the implementation of the initiative found that external industrial factors such as the level of economic develop-ment and the level of openness to the outside world show significant promotion effects,and structural di-vidends and policy-driven effects are significant,while tourism traffic conditions and resource abundance show significant regional heterogeneity in the policy effects of the initiative,and there are phenomena that are not significant or inhibit the development of inbound tourism,indicating that the core infrastructure conditions of the tourism industry need to be improved,and the optimization of traffic facilities and resource factors should be the key to future improvement.Therefore,the strategic guidance of the initiative on inbound tourism should be implemented in a differentiated manner for the provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)along the Belt and Road according to the different policy responses and impact mechanisms of the initiative in the Belt and Road regions,so as to promote the effective seizure of policy development opportunities in the regions along the Belt and Road and truly reduce the distance between and within the regions in terms of industrial de-velopment,as well as to establish a synergistic internal and external inbound tourism industry chain in order to realize the progressive and synergistic development of the whole region.
policy effectinbound tourism efficiencyBelt and Road InitiativeDifference in Difference(DID)Propensity Score Matching(PSM)
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