摘要
中国的"3060"目标对城市发展提出了更为严格的要求.为科学制定北京市碳中和目标并探索实现路径,文中系统梳理了伦敦、纽约、东京、巴黎4个国际大都市的碳中和目标、实现路径及具体措施.对比分析了北京能源消费及碳排放情况与这4个城市的差异,统筹考量北京目前的经济发展阶段、碳排放特点和未来城市定位等,结合LEAP模型测算结果,研究提出北京市碳中和路径.为支撑国家双碳目标,北京实现碳中和目标应在2055年或2050年.按近远期目标结合分步骤实现,2025年实现碳排放达峰后稳中有降,2035年实现较基准年减排35％,2055年/2050年达到较基准年减排85％.根据北京市主要碳排放源,实现碳中和主要集中在能源转型、建筑和交通低碳化发展、民众广泛参与以及技术创新等方向率先开展行动.
Abstract
Climate change is a significant global challenge that humanity faces today.As the world's largest emitter,China's"3060"target reflects its responsible attitude as a major country and demonstrates strict re-quirements for local development.Compared to globally recognized world cities such as New York,London,Tokyo and Paris,Beijing has a certain space for development in addressing climate change,economic growth,urban construction,and other aspects.To scientifically explore the carbon neutrality target and the roadmap of Beijing,this article systematically sorted out the proposed carbon neutrality goals,realization paths and specif-ic measures of the 4 international metropolises and compared the differences in energy consumption and car-bon emission between Beijing and these 4 international metropolises.After considering Beijing's current eco-nomic development stage,carbon emission characteristics and future urban positioning,and combined with the LEAP model results,the roadmap and timetable of Beijing's carbon neutrality are proposed.Beijing should be achieve carbon neutrality by 2055 or 2050 to support the country's dual carbon goals.According to the prin-ciple of combining short-term and long-term goals with step by step,carbon emission will be reduced steadily after reaching the peak by 2025 and by 2035 it will be reduced by 35％compared with the base year.In the neutralizing year of 2055/2050,carbon emission would be reduced by 85％.According to carbon dioxide emis-sion source characteristics,the main measures to achieve carbon neutrality for Beijing should focus on energy transformation,low-carbon buildings,green transportation,extensive public participation,and technological in-novation.
基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2017YFF0211805)
北京市科技计划课题(Z221100005222027)
NETL
NSTL
万方数据