Simulation of land cover pattern change in Northeast China:A comparative analysis based on CLUE-S and Markov-CA models
Northeast China is the ecological barrier of north China and the ballast stone of national food secur-ity.Simulation of future land cover pattern has important guiding significance for sustainable management of regional land resources.The CLUE-S model and Markov-CA model have been proved to have unique advant-ages in spatio-temporal predicting in previous studies.Based on the land cover change in Northeast China from 2000,2010,2015 interpreted by remote sensing,this study fully considers the impact of natural and social factors on land cover change,and uses CLUE-S model and Markov-CA model to simulate the land cover pat-tern in northeast China in 2015 and 2030 respectively.The results show that:Compared with the actual land cover type data interpreted by remote sensing in 2015,the overall Kappa indices of CLUE-S model and Markov-CA model are 0.9700 and 0.9649,respectively.The results show that the simulation results of the two models are relatively ideal.The simulation accuracy of CLUE-S model is higher than that of Markov-CA mod-el.From 2015 to 2030,the area of grassland,cultivated land,wetland,other land and water showed a decreas-ing trend in Northeast China,while the area of forest land and artificial surface showed an increasing trend,and man-land relationship became increasingly tense.Northeast China,as a region with relatively fragile ecologic-al environment,should be vigilant against unsustainable land cover change,and should balance the land de-mand of ecological protection,grain increase and infrastructure construction and coordinate development.This study can provide scientific basis and data support for the formulation of relevant policies such as territorial space planning in Northeast China.
CLUE-S modelMarkov-CA modelland use/land cover changespatial simulationNortheast China
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
