首页|生命历程事件对流动人口居留意愿的影响研究

生命历程事件对流动人口居留意愿的影响研究

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流动人口生命历程事件是日常生活的重要实践,其对流动人口的影响关乎流动人口切身利益与城镇化可持续发展.利用2018年流动人口动态监测数据,测算流动人口居留意愿,建立logistic回归模型探讨影响机理.结果表明:①在流入地有居留意愿的流动人口占85.10%,其中78.39%的人口有长期居留意愿,各城市差异较大.②毕业使流动人口倾向在流入地短期居留,在流入地生育子女和子女升学会提升流动人口在流入地居留和长期居留意愿,身体状况变差会使得流动人口居留意愿提升但对长期居留意愿无显著影响,结婚、失去工作和退休事件通过家庭和个体作用力提升流动人口长期居留意愿.③流动人口的人口、家庭、流动和城市特征对居留意愿和长期居留意愿的作用力具有差异性.最后,从安居、生育、健康、教育等方面提出流动人口高质量城镇化的建议.
Influence of life course events on migrants'settlement intention
The life course events of migrants are important practices in daily life,and their impact on migrants is related to the vital interests of migrants and the sustainable development of urbanization.Using the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2018(absence of data Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan),migrants'settle-ment intention was measured,and binary logistic regression models was established to explore the impact mechanism.The life course events in each stage of the life cycle of migrants will trigger their thoughts on whether to stay or leave in the receiving cities.The main findings are as follows:1)The proportion of migrants who intend to stay in the receiving cities is 85.10%and the probability of re-migration in a shorter period of time is low.78.39%migrants who intent to stay in the receiving cities intend to stay for a long time and there are significant differences among cities.2)Graduation makes migrants tend to stay for a short period of time.Having children in the receiving city and children's age near to primary or junior high school age significantly increase the probability of migrants'settlement or long-term settlement intention.The deterioration of physical condition could increase settlement intention but have no significant impact on their long-term settlement.Mar-riage,losing job and retirement could increase migrants'long-term settlement intention by the effects from characteristics of families or individuals.3)Migrants'characteristics of demography,family,migration and cit-ies'features have different effects on migrants'settlement intention or long-term settlement intention.Finally,suggestions for high-quality urbanization of migrants are put forward in terms of housing,fertility,health,and education,including creating long-term job opportunities and living conditions for professional and skilled tal-ents;improving policies on public rental houses and co-ownership houses to reduce the cost of marriage for mi-grants;popularizing cities'public healthcare and health services;granting equal educational rights to migrant children,and creatiing an elderly friendly city.

life course eventssettlement intentionlong-term settlement intentionmigrants

李思函、郑茹敏、梅林、蔡安宁

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东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林长春 130024

南京晓庄学院旅游与社会管理学院,江苏南京 211171

生命历程事件 居留意愿 长期居留意愿 流动人口

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金

4230127552078237

2024

地理科学
中国科学院 东北地理与农业生态研究所

地理科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:3.117
ISSN:1000-0690
年,卷(期):2024.44(3)
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