Reconstruction and preliminary analysis of high resolution agricultural harvest sequence in Shanxi and Shaanxi regions from 1368 to 1911
This study explores two limiting factors of long-term high-resolution agricultural harvest sequences reconstruction based on gazetteers.The first one is the interference caused by the coexistence of good and poor harvest records in the spatiotemporal distribution in the gazetteers.This study defines this phenomenon as"good and bad harvests combination",and preliminarily analyzes its possible causes.This second limiting factor caused by the asymmetry of missing records of good and bad harvests is also analyzed.This study effect-ively overcomes these limitations by introducing non-linear assignment of crop yield levels and interannual de-cay indices,and proposes a new reconstruction method for regional agricultural harvest sequences,which could:1)Extend the reconstruction time scale to a large extent while maintaining annual resolution;2)Integ-rate the phenomena of harvest and failure into the same sequence into the same sequence.The method was ap-plied to four sub-regions in Shanxi and Shaanxi during the Ming and Qing dynasties.The results show that:1)The agricultural harvest in Shanxi and Shaanxi shows two fluctuation patterns:low-frequency high-amp-litude pulses with a quasi cycle of about 40 years and high-frequency low amplitude oscillations;2)There is a good correspondence between the agricultural harvest in Shanxi and Shaanxi and climate factors,which is"negative during cold and positive during warm"and"negative during dry and positive during humid";3)The"pulse""adaptive",and"periodic"response patterns of the social system to climate change are reflected in the agricultural harvest sequence in Shanxi and Shaanxi during the Ming and Qing dynasties:Severe crop failures periodically impacted local society,while the majority of other periods were characterized by high-frequency minor crop failure fluctuations.Both types of crop failures significantly decreased in the 18th century,which is consistent with the significant population growth in this area and the"prosperous era from Kangxi Reign to Qi-anlong Reign"recorded by historians.
historical climateagricultural harvestgazetteerthe Ming and Qing dynastiesShanxi and Shaanxi regiongood and bad harvests combination
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