首页|长江经济带城市韧性水平与旅游环境承载力交互胁迫及协同响应

长江经济带城市韧性水平与旅游环境承载力交互胁迫及协同响应

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以长江经济带为研究对象,构建城市韧性与旅游环境承载力综合评价指标体系并测度其发展水平,运用双指数函数验证其交互胁迫效应,借助哈肯模型测度协同发展态势,利用VAR模型判断互动响应关系,结果表明:①区域整体两大系统水平均有所提升,东部处于"翘楚"地位,中、西部实现对东部的"追赶",但存在低水平趋同与城市韧性不足的困境.②交互胁迫关系证实,长江经济带城市韧性水平与旅游环境承载力具有相互胁迫约束效应且存在时空异质性,城市韧性水平越高的地区,旅游环境承载力压力越大.③区域协同水平在时间维度呈现由失调向协同转化的利好态势,空间分异特征呈现由"东部领衔"到"西部崛起"再到"中部追赶"的动态演化过程,稳态均衡收敛趋势增强.④区域脉冲响应差异显著,江苏、上海分别对城市韧性与旅游环境承载力冲击的起伏波动较大;中部两大系统的脉冲响应均呈现"先波动后平稳"特征;西部两大系统的脉冲响应表现出较为突出的起伏.
Interactive stress effect and collaborative response of urban resilience level and tourism environmental carrying capacity:A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt
Exploring the complex relationship between urban resilience and the carrying capacity of the tour-ism environment is of great significance in promoting efficient urbanization and highlighting the green devel-opment effects of tourism.This study focuses on the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object.It constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban resilience and the carrying capacity of the tour-ism environment and measures their development levels.It uses a dual-index function to verify the interactive stress effect,employs the Haken model to measure the coordinated development trend,and utilizes the VAR model to assess the interactive response relationships.The results show that:1)The overall level of urban resi-lience and the carrying capacity of the tourism environment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt have im-proved,with the eastern region taking the lead and the central and western regions catching up with the east,but there are still challenges of low-level convergence and insufficient urban resilience.2)The interactive stress relationship is confirmed,indicating that there is a mutual stress effect between the level of urban resilience and the carrying capacity of the tourism environment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and there is temporal and spatial heterogeneity.The higher the level of urban resilience,the greater the pressure on the carrying capa-city of the tourism environment,which shows a certain consistency between the two.3)The regional collabor-ative level shows a favorable trend of transitioning from imbalance to synergy in the temporal dimension,with a decrease in mismatched areas and a continuous increase in high-quality collaborative areas.The spatial differ-entiation features evolve dynamically from"the eastern Yangtze River Economic Belt leadership"to"western Yangtze River Economic Belt rise"and then to"central Yangtze River Economic Belt catch-up",with an en-hanced trend of steady-state equilibrium convergence.4)There are significant differences in regional impulse responses,with Jiangsu and Shanghai showing large fluctuations in the impact on urban resilience and the car-rying capacity of the tourism environment.The impulse responses of the two systems in the central region ex-hibit the characteristic of"initial fluctuation followed by stability",while the impulse responses of the two sys-tems in the western region display more prominent fluctuations.

urban resilience leveltourism environmental carrying capacityreciprocal stresssynergy effectimpulse responsethe Yangtze River Economic Belt

李志远、冯学钢、左文俊、夏赞才、牛菁莹

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华东师范大学经济与管理学院,上海 200062

乌拉尔联邦大学高等经济与管理学院,俄罗斯叶卡捷琳堡 620002

湖南师范大学旅游学院,湖南长沙 410081

城市韧性水平 旅游环境承载力 交互胁迫 协同效应 脉冲响应 长江经济带

国家社会科学基金项目湖南省社会科学基金项目

19ZD2519WTA11

2024

地理科学
中国科学院 东北地理与农业生态研究所

地理科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:3.117
ISSN:1000-0690
年,卷(期):2024.44(4)
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