Comprehensive urban resilience and dynamic prediction of Nanjing City based on the new development concept
Based on the new development concept,this paper constructs a resilience measurement index sys-tem from 4 dimensions of"economy-society-ecology-engineering"and quantitatively evaluates the urban resi-lience of Nanjing from 2005 to 2019 by dimensions and stages using entropy value method.A dynamic simula-tion model of Nanjing's urban resilience was constructed with the help of System Dynamics to predict the de-velopment level of Nanjing's urban resilience from 2020 to 2035 in a long time series and to compare the de-velopment potential of different scenarios.The results show that the overall trend of Nanjing's comprehensive resilience and sub-dimensional resilience fluctuates upward between 2005 and 2019.Compared with 2019,by 2035,Nanjing's comprehensive resilience level will increase by 25.62％,27.59％,28.40％,27.19％and 30.29％under the scenarios of natural state development,high population growth,rapid economic growth,ecological priority development and comprehensive and coordinated development,respectively.It can be seen that the comprehensive coordinated development scenario can maximize the improvement of Nanjing's urban resili-ence level,and achieve strong resilience earliest,while other development scenarios will have varying degrees of negative effects on certain socio-economic indicators.Therefore,Nanjing should focus on the continuous optimization of the integrated and coordinated development path.
new development conceptresilienceSystem Dynamicsmulti-scenario simulationNanjing
万方数据
维普
