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中原城市群城市韧性时空演进及跃迁机制

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韧性城市建设是城市可持续和高质量发展的必然要求,也是中国加快推进应急管理体系和能力现代化的重要途径.基于中原城市群2006-2019年面板数据,通过构建城市韧性评价指标体系,运用探索性时空数据分析方法,探究中原城市群城市韧性时空演变特征,借助分位数回归与时空跃迁嵌套模型,揭示中原城市群城市韧性时空跃迁机制.结果表明:①研究期内中原城市群城市韧性指数总体呈上升趋势,地区差异明显;②中原城市群城市韧性的空间分布以负相关类型的低-低冷点集聚区为主,空间同质性特征显著;③中原城市群西北部和郑州市周边地区城市韧性的空间演化动态性更强,城市韧性较弱的地区空间结构呈现更为明显的稳定性.城市韧性水平的局部空间结构较稳定,部分研究单元存在较强的转移惰性;④在低分位阶段,城市集聚是制约城市韧性发展的重要因素,经济发展、政府财政、技术创新、公共服务和生态环境是驱动城市韧性发展的重要因素;在高分位阶段,城市集聚是阻碍城市韧性发展的重要因素,经济发展、政府财政和生态环境是驱动城市韧性发展的重要因素.
Spatial and temporal evolution of urban resilience and its transition mechanism in Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration
Resilient cities are a requirement for urban sustainable development and high-quality development.Based on the panel data of the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration from 2006 to 2019,this paper constructs an evaluation system to measure the urban resilience of the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration.Using exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis methods,we investigate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of urb-an resilience in the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration,and explore the spatial and temporal transition mechan-ism of urban resilience with the help of quantile regression.The results show that:1)the spatial distribution of urban resilience in the Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration is dominated by low-low cold spot agglomerations of negative correlation type,with significant spatial homogeneity.2)the spatial evolution of urban resilience in the northwestern Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration and the area near Zhengzhou City is more dynamic,and the spatial structure of the less resilient urban areas has stronger stability.3)The local spatial structure of urban re-silience level is more stable,and some of the study units have a strong transfer inertia.4)In the low quantile stage,urban agglomeration is an important factor limiting the development of urban resilience,and economic development,government finance,technological innovation,public services and ecological environment are important factors driving the development of urban resilience;in the high quantile stage,urban agglomeration is an important factor that hinders urban resilience development,and economic development,government fin-ance and ecological environment are important factors that drive urban resilience development.

urban resilienceresilience measureexploratory spatial temporal data analysistransition mech-anismthe Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration

王璇、王成新、史佳璐

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山东师范大学地理与环境学院,山东济南 250358

河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心,河南开封 475000

山东女子学院旅游学院,山东济南 250358

城市韧性 韧性测度 探索性时空数据分析 跃迁机制 中原城市群

教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目

22JJD790015

2024

地理科学
中国科学院 东北地理与农业生态研究所

地理科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:3.117
ISSN:1000-0690
年,卷(期):2024.44(7)