Spatial-temporal dynamics and trend prediction of desertification land in the Hobq Desert from 1987 to 2022
The Hobq Desert is the seventh largest desert in China,and it is also the most distributed desert in the east.In China,the water and soil resources are better in the desert,and it is the area with the most work in the practice of sand prevention and control in China.The information of desertification land change is one of the core index pieces of information of ecological restoration project effectiveness evaluation.In order to deeply analyze the change of desertification land in this area,the remote sensing images from 1987 to 2022 were selected.Based on 3S technology,the NDVI pixel dichotomy model was used to calculate the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of desertified land.Quantitative analysis of the influencing factors affecting the spatial change of desertification land was carried out by using geographic detector.Finally,the PLUS model was selected to predict the distribution pattern of desertified land in 2032.The results showed that:1)During the 35 years,the vegetation coverage of the Hobq Desert showed an overall growth trend,from 13.59％to 30.43％;from west to east,there is a clear division from mobile sandy land to fixed sandy land,and the vegeta-tion in the north is mostly along the yellow section.2)The area of mobile sand decreased by 50％;the area of semi-fixed sandy land increased by 10％,mainly from the management of mobile sandy land.Fixed sandy land increased by 89.80％,with the largest increase of 2.3％in 2017.3)The desertification cultivated land increased from 13.98％to 17.56％in 35 years,with an average increase of about l％-2％every 5 years.30.83％of the in-crease in the area of desertified cultivated land came from semi-fixed sandy land,and 6.49％came from mo-bile sandy land.Abandonment or encroachment of desertified farmland led to an increase of 18.97％in grass-land area.4)Social and economic factors are the dominant factors of land use change in the Hobq Desert.In the future,the Hobq Desert will develop in the direction of increasing semi-fixed sand,fixed sand,forest land,grassland,cultivated land and other resource-based land.The reduction of desertification land and the increase of vegetation cover in the study area can provide reference and data reference for the follow-up desert control and desert project implementation along the Yellow River.
the Hobq DesertNDVIdesertified landPLUS modelland use change
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