Sustainability assessment based on PLUS simulation of future land use change:A case study of Jiangxi Province
This paper takes the current land use situation in Jiangxi Province in 2010 and 2020 as the base period data,and combines the characteristics of natural resources and land use policies in Jiangxi Province,then it uses the PLUS model to simulate three future scenarios of land use in the province in 2030(the normal development scenario,the ecological protection scenario,and the arable land protection scenario),discovering the connotation of the growth law and the mechanism of land transformation through the simulation analysis and evaluating the results of the three future development scenarios based on the concept of sustainable development.The results of the three future devel-opment scenarios were evaluated based on the concept of sustainable development.The results show that:1)From 2010 to 2020,the main trends in land use in Jiangxi Province are a continuous decrease in farmland and forest area,and a stable increase in shrub and construction land area.During the land transformation process,the conversion between farmland,forest,and shrub land is prominent,with farmland and forest serving as the main sources of con-struction land expansion,and there is a substitution relationship between forest and farmland.2)In the suitability as-sessment of the three future scenarios(2030),the normal development scenario shows consistent changes in area com-pared to the 2010-2020 period.It has the highest social and economic benefits,the largest suitability simulation in-dex(SSI),and the best potential for sustainable development.Under the ecological protection scenario,the areas of shrub land,water bodies,and wetlands slightly increase,while farmland decreases significantly.Compared to the oth-er two scenarios,it has the best ecological benefits and good suitability.Under the farmland protection scenario,farm-land resources are replenished,forest area decreases sharply,and the areas of construction land and shrub land in-crease.It has the lowest economic benefits and moderate suitability.The multi-scenario simulations reflect the dif-ferent development needs of Jiangxi Province,providing reference for managers in future land spatial planning and development.
land usePLUS modelscenario simulationJiangxi Provincesustainable development
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