Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of social-ecological system vulnerability and the influence of flow elements in metropolitan suburbs
Flow elements are not only an important force for the temporal differentiation and reorganization of rural vulnerability,but also an important perspective in the study of urban and rural reconstruction.By constructing a social-ecological system vulnerability evaluation indicator system of"sensitivity-adaptability",the dynamic change characteristics of vulnerability and the impact of flow factors of 184 administrative villages in Qingpu District of Shanghai Municipality from 1998 to 2018 were analyzed by means of sequential polygonal area method,spatial exploration and analysis,and fixed effect spatial error model.The results show that:1)During the study period,the social-ecological system vulnerability of the district increased from 0.521 to 0.622,and the vulnerability level increased from low grade to medium grade.The spatio-temporal patterns show that vulnerability first increased and then decreased,and was high in the east and low in the west.2)The relative length of the social-ecological system vulnerability temporal path movement in the district showed a trend of gradual decline from the central region to the surrounding areas from 1998 to 2018.The mobility curvature of the vulnerability time path was relatively small,showing the spatial pattern of high in the north and south and low in the central area,and the flow index for vulnerability spatio-temporal transition was 0.509,indicating that the spatial agglomeration structure had relatively high transfer activity in this region.3)Population flow had become the leading factor for enhancing vulnerability and the coefficient of impact was 0.022,and capital flow and commercial flow were the key to reducing vulnerability.The effect of outflow on vulnerability was generally higher than on inflow,and the most significant effect of population outflow on vulnerability increase was 0.018,while the vulnerability reduction capacity of capital inflow was-0.009."Sensitivity synergy-adaptive trade off'had become the dominant mode of flow factor impact on vulnerability in Qingpu District.The flow factors had a more significant impact on economic sensitivity and economic adaptability.
social-ecological systemvulnerabilityspatial and temporal evolutionflow elementsflow directionQingpu District
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
