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黄河流域县域乡村空心化地域类型及乡村振兴路径

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"人"是乡村生产发展的主体,从人口演变视角揭示黄河流域乡村空心化的地域类型及其驱动机制,对推进黄河流域生态保护、乡村振兴发展具有重要的意义。论文利用人口普查资料和XGBoost模型,分析黄河流域县域乡村空心化的地域类型、时空差异及其形成机制,提出不同地区乡村振兴路径。研究发现:①黄河流域乡村空心化可划分为空废型、衰败型、衰退型、衰弱型、增长型等5种地域类型,其中,衰败型增长幅度最大,由2000-2010年的16%增长到2010-2020年的39%;衰弱型的降幅最大,由29%下降到12%。黄河流域上游、中游和下游乡村空心化地域类型正向变化最大的为中游的衰败型(增幅为43个百分点),负向变化最大的为下游的衰弱型(降幅为34个百分点)。②乡村空心化地域类型的时空差异显著,且空间集聚特征逐渐显现,增长型和衰弱型空间分布范围不断萎缩,衰败型空间分布呈扩张态势,衰弱型和衰败型逐渐向黄河上游集聚。③从黄河流域整体看,不同阶段乡村空心化地域类型空间分异的主导因素不同,但县域城镇化、地形等因素一直发挥了较大的作用。上游地区受县域城镇化的影响一直较大,对中游地区影响较大的因素由2000-2010年的县域城镇化演变为2010-2020年的农业现代化,县域城镇化、地形对下游地区的作用更大。④黄河流域上、中、下游地区自然环境、人文经济的空间差异大,乡村空心化地域类型的流域差异显著,各地区乡村振兴路径务必要结合地方特色,创新发展模式,加快形成城乡融合、工农互促的良性格局,推动乡村振兴发展。研究结果可为黄河流域农业农村现代化发展提供科学决策依据。
Rural hollowing out in the Yellow River Basin and the development path of rural revitalization
"People"is the main agent of rural production and development.Understanding the regional types and driving mechanisms of rural hollowing in the Yellow River Basin from the perspective of population change is of great significance for promoting ecological protection and rural revitalization in the basin.Research showed that:1)There is a significant change in the types of hollowed out rural areas in the Yellow River Basin,with the decline type having the largest growth rate,increasing from 16%in 2000-2010 to 39%in 2010-2020;The weakening type had the largest decrease,from 29%to 12%.With regard to the changes of regional types in various watersheds,the decline type in the middle reaches increased by 43 percentage points,while the weakening type in the downstream decreased by 34 percentage points.2)The spatiotemporal differences in rural hollowing out regions are significant,and the spatial agglomeration characteristics are gradually emerging.The spatial distribution range of growth and weakening types is constantly shrinking,while the spatial distribution of decline types is expanding.The trend of aggregation of weakening and decline types is increasing towards the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin.3)The spatial differentiation of rural hollowing in the Yellow River Basin is influenced by various factors at different stages,but urbanization and topography play a significant role.In the upstream area,urbanization has had a greater impact.However,the factor that have had a greater impact on the middle reaches have evolved from urbanization in the period 2000-2010 to agricultural modernization in the period 2010-2020.Both topography and economic factors have exerted a stronger influence on the downstream area.4)There are significant regional differences in the natural environment and culture and economy between the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,as well as significant differences in the hollowing out of rural areas.It is necessary to combine local characteristics and innovate development paths for rural revitalization in different sections of the river basin,accelerate the formation of urban-rural integration and mutual promotion between industry and agriculture,and promote rural revitalization and development.

demographic changerural hollowing outregional typesXGBoost modelrural revitalizationYellow River Basin

付占辉、杨雅涵、乔家君、朱肖勇、江孝君

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河南大学地理与环境学院,河南开封 475004

黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室,河南开封 475004

河南大学国际商学院,郑州 470000

唐山师范学院资源管理系,河北唐山 063000

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人口演变 乡村空心化 地域类型 XGBoost模型 乡村振兴 黄河流域

河南省自然科学青年基金项目国家自然科学基金项目河北省自然科学青年基金项目

23230042043042371223D2022105002

2024

地理科学进展
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国地理学会

地理科学进展

CSTPCDCSSCI北大核心
影响因子:2.458
ISSN:1007-6301
年,卷(期):2024.43(6)
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