Impact pathways of rural population reduction on arable land transition
Human-environment relationship is the core of the sustainable development of social and ecological systems,and it is of great significance to explore the mechanism of influence of rural population change on the transition of arable land in order to regulate the rural territorial system and guarantee food security.In this study,the transition of arable land was deconstructed into four aspects,namely,spatial layout transition,quantitative structural transition,utilization transition,and functional efficiency transition.An analytical framework was constructed to analyze the impact of rural population change on the transition of arable land,and three sets of hypotheses were put forward on the basis of this framework,which are empirically tested by constructing an econometric model for Suining County of Jiangsu Province as a case study.The results show that:1)Rural population change has a comprehensive effect on the transition of arable land functional efficiency by affecting the transition of arable land spatial layout,quantitative structure,and utilization mode,respectively.2)Rural population transfer has a positive effect on the enhancement of arable land spatial agglomeration,and the increased spatial agglomeration of arable land further promotes its functional efficiency-when rural population decreases by 1％,the level of spatial agglomeration of arable land increases by 1.352％.For every 1％increase in the level of spatial agglomeration of arable land,functional efficiency will correspondingly increase by 0.136％.3)Rural population loss intensifies the transition of the quantitative structure of arable land,which in turn leads to a reduction in the functional efficiency of arable land-a 1％migration of rural population results in a 0.248％increase in the transfer of arable land to other agricultural uses,and conversely,each 1％transfer of arable land to other agricultural uses is associated with a 0.097％decline in grain production efficiency.4)The reduction of rural population is conducive to promoting the transition of arable land to a modernized mode of utilization,which in turn enhances the functional efficiency of arable land utilization-a decrease of 1％in rural population correlates with a 0.488％increase in the level of modernized utilization of arable land.Each 1％increase in the modernization level of arable land utilization is associated with a 0.135％improvement in arable land productivity.This article elucidated the pathways through which the reduction of rural population influences the transition of arable land utilization,which can provide a reference for the regulation of rural human-environment relationship and rural transition and development.
rural populationarable land transitionhuman-environment relationshipstructure and layoutfunctional efficiency
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