Future population spatial equilibrium distribution of China under CMIP6 scenarios
As a spatial representation of population equilibrium,population spatial equilibrium is of great significance to the realization of high-quality development goal.As a major challenge in the world,climate change and the policy pathways to deal with it will profoundly affect the society,economy and environment of the world in the future,and then change the pattern of population spatial equilibrium distribution in China.This study examined the impact of climate change on population spatial equilibrium distribution based on seven typical scenarios in the CMIP6.The concept of"equal possibility-satisfiability"population spatial equilibrium distribution was proposed according to the possibility-satisfiability model,and a multi-region computational model was developed.Based on this model,this study explored the spatial equilibrium distribution pattern of China's population by province in 2035 and 2050 and its constraints under the pathways of climate change and social and economic development in response to climate change.The results show that scenarios with the highest possibility-satisfiability values are SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6,indicating that sustainable development best serves the needs of high-quality population development of China in the future.Conversely,the lowest possibility-satisfiability value is found under SSP3-7.0,suggesting that human development may not be sustainable in the face of the twin challenges of economic growth and climate change,and the fierce inter-regional competition will reduce the quality of development.With the single-factor constraint,in reaching spatial equilibrium distribution of population under SSP2-4.5,compared with the provincial population distribution of China in 2020,the equilibrium population proportions in the northeastern and central provinces increase the most,with relative decrease in the eastern and western provinces.The equilibrium population distributions under the other scenarios demonstrate an increasing trend in the east and a decreasing trend in the west when compared with SSP2-4.5.Notably,natural resources such as grain,forestland,and water resources play a central role in shaping population spatial equilibrium distribution.In contrast,using the multi-factor model,the equilibrium population distributions of the central and western provinces are projected to decrease compared to 2020 due to their decreased natural resource advantages while factors can be substituted by others.The gross equilibrium population distribution further inclines toward the southeast coast.The equilibrium population distributions under the other scenarios are similar to that under SSP2-4.5.Importantly,all scenarios suggest that when population spatial equilibrium distribution is achieved,the population spatial distribution pattern of China delineated by the Hu Line remains unchanged.This indicates that future climate change and the pathways of social and economic development in response to climate change will not alter the significance of the Hu Line for China's population geography.This study can provide policy basis for China to actively respond to climate change in the future and achieve high-quality regional coordinated development.
spatial equilibrium of population distributionpossibility-satisfiabilityCMIP6 scenariosShared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
