Simulation of urban-rural integration development of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration from the perspective of"human-land-industry"coordination
Simulation of urban-rural integration development of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration from the perspective of"human-land-industry"coordination
Scientific knowledge of the evolution process of urban-rural integration system in urban agglomerations and the interaction relationship between system elements is of great significance for its optimization and regulation.On the basis of analyzing the dynamics of urban-rural integration and the operation mechanism of urban-rural integration system,the paper focuses on the main controlling factors of urban-rural population,land and industry,and integrates the use of system dynamics,genetic algorithm and other models to construct a system dynamics model of urban-rural integration system of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration with the coordination of"human-land-industry",and simulate and predict the development trend of urban-rural integration in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration.The study shows that:1)The urban-rural territorial system in the urban agglomeration area towards integration is the result of the combined effect of multiple sources of power,the overall urban-rural spatial endogenous development dynamics and urban-rural spatial interaction and integration dynamics synergistically affect the free flow of urban-rural elements,coupled with the complex operation process and mechanism.2)The urban-rural integration system in the urban agglomeration area contains multi-factor nonlinear relationship,multi-source power combination and multi-layer feedback structure,urban-rural integration system is a complex process and mechanism.The evolution of mutual feedback relationship between the elements of"human-land-industry"dynamically affects the operation status of urban-rural integration system and urban-rural spatial utilization pattern in the urban agglomeration area.3)The results of multi-scenario simulation show that,in 2035,the total urban-rural population of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration may exceed 18 million people,and the urban-rural GDP may increase to about 3.5 trillion to 4.3 trillion yuan.The integrated development scenario based on coordination can balance the efficiency and fairness of urban-rural development,and is the optimal direction for urban-rural integrated development in the future Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration.The results of this study can deepen the research on urban-rural integrated development in urban agglomerations,and provide decision-making references for the diagnosis and optimization of urban-rural integrated development in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration.
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