The Effects of Demographic Structure,Aging Trend and Delayed Retirement on Economic Growth
This paper examines the influence of demographic factors on economic growth,predicts population trends and aging trends,and analyzes the influence of demographic factors and delayed retirement policies on e-conomic growth.The research has come to the following three conclusions.First,the increase in the number of labor force and labor force ratio,and the decline in the dependency ratio of the population will promote econom-ic growth,and the impact of population structure on economic growth is not as strong as that of labor force,but the influence of demographic change in predicting the future is greater.Second,the total population will en-ter a downward trajectory under the low scenario,and if the total fertility rate does not increase rapidly,China's aging will continue to deepen in the next 30 years.Third,delaying retirement can greatly reduce the negative impact of aging on economic growth;increasing the fertility rate can slow down the degree of aging,but it will curb economic growth in the short term.The more the delayed retirement plan increases the working popula-tion,the more it can promote economic growth.The greater the implementation of delayed retirement,and the higher the statutory retirement age,the greater the buffer against aging.If men and women delay retirement by one year each year,eventually reaching the age of 70 and 65 respectively,the inhibition of aging may even be fully offset in some years.
万方数据
维普
