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基于县域尺度的中国住宅用地市场健康度研究

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为科学分析当前中国住宅用地市场健康状态和空间格局特征,基于2009-2013年全国住宅用地出让数据,以县域为研究单元,提出地价—经济协调度、地价收入比、土地财政贡献度、土地市场化交易率和土地市场交易活跃度等5项评价指标,采用Ward系统聚类法,对中国 住宅市场健康度进行综合分区,并以长三角、珠三角和京津冀地区为重点区,探究区内不同城市住宅市场健康度的空间分异特征.研究表明:①研究期内中国住宅市场的总体健康状态有待提高,处于合理区间的研究单元占比为34.48%,影响住宅市场健康度的主要指标表现为地价—经济协调度、地价收入比和土地财政贡献度失衡.②综合各类评价指标,研究期内中国住宅市场健康度可分为协调发展型(Ⅰ类)、需求旺盛型(Ⅱ类)、经济偏离型(Ⅲ类)、财政依托型(Ⅳ类)和结构失调型(Ⅴ类)等五类,各类研究单元占比分别为34.48%、22.90%、23.06%、10.07%和9.49%.③长三角、珠三角和京津冀三大城市群(地区)在住宅市场健康度的表现上存在显著的空间分异,主要体现在地价—经济协调性、地价—收入匹配度和土地市场交易活跃度等方面.结合当前中央城镇化工作会议的要求,应针对各地区的特点制定差别化的住宅市场调控政策,以促进住宅市场健康有序发展.
Evaluation of health status in national housing market at the county level
In order to investigate the health status and spatial pattern of current housing market in China,based on 2009-2013 national residential land transaction data at the county level,this study proposes land price-economy coordination degree,land price-income matching degree,the contribution of land revenue to local financial revenue,the proportion of land transaction through market-oriented approaches (including bid invitation,auction and listing),and housing market transaction activity as evaluation indicators.Then the Ward hierarchical clustering method is used to produce a comprehensive regionalization of housing market health status in China.Finally the spatial variation of housing market health status in China's key regions (Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Jing-Jin-Tang area) is analyzed at city level.The results show that:(1) The overall housing market health level in China needs to be improved.Some 34.48% of the research units are in reasonable health interval,and mainly distributed in southern Tianshan piedmont,Northeast China Plain,Shandong Peninsula,Dongting Lake area and other areas.Land price-economy coordination degree,land price-income matching degree and the contribution of land revenue to local financial revenue are main indicators that affect housing market health.(2) The housing market health status in China during the study period can be divided into five types consisting of "coordinated development" (Class Ⅰ),"strong demand" (Class Ⅱ),"economic deviation" (Class Ⅲ),"financial dependence" (Class Ⅳ) and "imbalanced structure" (Class Ⅴ),accounting for 34.48%,22.90%,23.06%,10.07% and 9.49% respectively.(3) Key regions' housing market health has significant spatial variation in land price-economy coordination degree,land price-income matching degree and housing market transaction activity.Under the requirements of current central work conference on urbanization,it is necessary for government to promote healthy and orderly development of housing market through appropriate control policies based on regional characteristics.

housing markethealth statusWard hierarchical clusteringspatial variationcounty level

徐心茹、金晓斌、张志宏、韩娟、孙伟、项晓敏、谢锦园、周寅康

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南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210023

南京大学自然资源研究中心,南京210023

中国土地勘测规划院,北京100029

住宅市场 健康度 Ward系统聚类 空间分异 县域

教育部博士点基金

20120091110014

2017

地理研究
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

地理研究

CSTPCDCSSCICSCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.214
ISSN:1000-0585
年,卷(期):2017.36(1)
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