Local government's land-based financing risk measurement and spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors:China's provincial governments as examples,from 2005 to 2018
Identifying and measuring land-based financing risks of local governments and exploring the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors are useful for local governments to take targeted measures to prevent and control land-based financing risks.This paper constructs a local government's land-based financing risk measurement index system and measures the land-based financing risk status of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2005 to 2018 using the entropy power method;adopts cluster analysis to classify the risk and reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of local government's land-based financing risk and explores the spatial heterogeneity of the influencing factors of local government's land-based financing risk in a sub-regional and multi-dimensional manner using a fixed-effect model.It is found that:(1)The indicators with the largest and smallest contribution weights to land-based finance risk are debt burden rate and public finance revenue and expenditure ratio,respectively.In the secondary risk of land-based financing,the contribution weight of debt risk is the largest and that of market risk is the smallest.(2)During the investigation period,the overall risk of land-based financing in China showed an upward trend of time series evolution,and there was a trend of spreading from the central and western regions to the eastern China.Overall,the risk of land-based financing in the economically developed eastern regions is generally low,with little annual change.The risk in the economically underdeveloped central and western regions is high,and increases year by year.(3)There are significant spatial heterogeneity in the direction and significance of the influencing factors of local government's land-based financing risk for regions with different risk levels.Local governments must take full account of regional heterogeneity in managing land-based financing risks and adopt systematic relief measures tailored to local conditions.
land-based financingrisk measurementinfluencing factorslocal government
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