Regional types evolution of China's county-level floating population and influencing factors during 2000-2020
The floating population at county-level units is the core of China's urbanization and the main contributor to the urban scale's growth.It is essential to clarify the characteristics of population movement at county-level units.The paper examines the statistical definitions of the floating population for the censuses in 2000,2010 and 2020,calculates the in-migrants and out-migrants of the population at the county-level units in China,classifies them into six regional types according to the modified composite-index method.Finally,a multinomial probit model is applied to investigate the factors affecting the formation of the geographical type of floating population from four dimensions:economic development,public services,geographic location and natural environment.The main results are listed as follows:(1)There has been a sharp increase in the floating population at county-level units,and the floating population has become more active,and the population has gradually moved from an era of"low activity"to an era of"high activity";(2)The actively balanced migration type is transformed into the active net out-migration type,and the small-scale active net out-migration gradually spreads from the southeast coastal areas to the inland areas,and gradually become the dominant geographical type,large-scale active net out-migration type has been transformed from non-existent to existing;(3)The large-scale active net in-migration type of counties and cities,which accounts for less than 5％ of the country's total number,concentrates more than 60％ of the floating population,and small-scale active net in-migration counties have become less attractive to the floating population;(4)Currently,economic factors are still the main force shaping the spatial pattern of the regional types of the floating population,with counties and cities of more per capita GDP,non-farm employment opportunities and urbanization rates being more likely to be net-influx active,but the influence of non-economic factors on them is gradually strengthening.
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